能言汇说：受惠关税战降温，澳元上望

Report Industry Investment Rating - The outlook for the Australian dollar against the US dollar in the second half of 2025 is neutral to positive [2] Core Viewpoints - The Australian dollar has been weak since the beginning of this year but has seen a new upward trend since April 9 [1]. - The Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points in this week's meeting, and inflation remains stubborn [2]. - Good news in global trade, such as the Sino - US decision to significantly reduce tariffs, is beneficial to commodity currencies [2]. - If Sino - US trade relations continue to improve, it will be favorable for the currencies of countries with close trade relations with China, like the Australian dollar [2]. Section Summaries Australian Dollar Performance - In Q1, the Australian dollar against the US dollar fluctuated between 0.62 and 0.64, lacking upward momentum compared to European currencies [1]. - Since April 9, it rebounded from a low of 0.5915, rose for 7 consecutive days, broke through and stabilized above the 50 - day moving average, reached 0.6515 on May 7, and then dropped to 0.642 [1]. Central Bank Policy and Inflation - The Reserve Bank of Australia started cutting interest rates in February, paused in April, and cut rates by 0.25 percentage points this week, bringing the cash rate to 3.85% [2]. - Australia's Q1 consumer price index rose 2.4% year - on - year, slightly higher than the market expectation of 2.3% [2]. Trade News - China and the US decided to significantly reduce tariffs for 90 days after bilateral talks in Switzerland, with the US reducing tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30% and China cutting tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10% [2]. - US Treasury Secretary said Sino - US negotiators may hold another meeting in a few weeks to discuss a more detailed trade agreement [2]. Outlook for the Australian Dollar - In the second half of 2025, if Sino - US trade relations improve, it will benefit the Australian dollar, with a support level of 0.61 and a resistance level of around 0.69 [2]. - In the short term, if the Australian dollar breaks through the 250 - day moving average of about 0.649, the next high is expected to be around 0.66 [2]