国投期货能源日报-20250521

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not clearly stated [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear long - term trend and current appropriate investment opportunities [1][5] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but poor operability on the market [1][5] - Asphalt: Not clearly stated [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear long - term trend and current appropriate investment opportunities [1][5] Core Views - The international oil price was basically flat. The S007 contract rose 1.18% intraday. Short - term factors support oil prices, but the medium - term supply - demand situation limits the rebound space [2] - Fuel - related futures closed higher. The low - sulfur fuel oil crack spread faces pressure to fall from high levels, while the high - sulfur fuel oil crack spread is expected to fluctuate at high levels [3] - When crude oil rebounded, asphalt's follow - up increase was insufficient and the crack spread declined. The capacity utilization rate is expected to decrease, and the BU is expected to fluctuate strongly [4] - The domestic CIF price of liquefied petroleum gas has fallen, and the spot price has room to decline in the short term. The futures market is mainly fluctuating weakly [4] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - International oil prices were basically flat. Driven by the news that Israel may attack Iranian nuclear facilities, oil prices once rose. The S007 contract rose 1.18% intraday. Short - term factors such as the approaching peak oil - using season, refining demand after the refinery maintenance season, geopolitical risks in the Middle East, and the risk of sanctions on Russia and Iran support oil prices, but the medium - term supply - demand situation limits the rebound space. Brent and SC still focus on the pressure levels of $70/barrel and 500 yuan/barrel [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - When crude oil rose, fuel - related futures closed higher. The demand for low - sulfur marine fuel bunkering is relatively strong. The Singapore low - sulfur marine fuel bunker price spread rose by $3.5/ton to $12/ton last week. However, due to the widening of the east - west price difference of low - sulfur fuel oil and the expansion of the delivery grade in China, the low - sulfur fuel oil crack spread faces pressure to fall from high levels. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in marine fuel and deep - processing is relatively low, but the pre - peak power - generation stocking demand in the Middle East and North Africa offsets this, and the short - term sanction risk on Russia and Iran is strengthened. The high - sulfur fuel oil crack spread is expected to fluctuate at high levels [3] Asphalt - When crude oil rebounded, asphalt's follow - up increase was insufficient and the crack spread declined. Some refineries reduced production or switched production, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to decrease next week. Last week, the asphalt shipment volume was 392,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 49,000 tons. As of May 19, the inventories of 54 sample refineries and 104 sample traders decreased by 10,000 tons and 44,000 tons respectively. The BU is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is expected that the destocking cycle will start in June, and a long - BU crack spread strategy can be considered after the BU crack spread回调 [4] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The domestic CIF price has fallen, and the pressure of concentrated arrivals in the first half of May still exists. The storage capacity utilization rate in East China continues to rise. The support of import costs has weakened, and refineries have increased their external sales, leading to a general decline in refinery gas prices. The PDH operating rate decreased last week, but some plants will start up at the end of the month. Although crude oil has rebounded, the spot price has room to decline in the short term, and the futures market is mainly fluctuating weakly [4]