黑色产业数据每日监测-20250521

Group 1: Market Overview - On May 21, among black commodity futures, only iron ore and hot-rolled coils closed higher. Rebar closed at 3061 yuan/ton, down 0.07%; hot-rolled coil's main contract closed at 3211 yuan/ton, up 0.16%; iron ore's main contract closed at 728.5 yuan/ton; coking coal and coke continued to decline [1]. Group 2: Market Analysis - Demand - Terminal real estate investment continues to decline, and steel-using indicators remain weak, dragging down the sentiment of black commodities. Last week, steel blast furnace maintenance increased, and the daily average pig iron output decreased slightly. However, considering the profitability of long-process steel, the short-term production reduction space is limited, and there is still support for the actual demand of iron ore. Overall, the demand for iron ore is in a "near-strong, far-weak" pattern, with limited directional drive for the market [1]. Group 3: Market Analysis - Supply - Mysteel data shows that the latest total iron ore shipments were 33.478 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.188 million tons. Overseas shipments have significantly rebounded, which may increase the supply pressure of iron ore. However, the recent arrival volume is relatively low, and the inventory of imported iron ore at Chinese ports is still decreasing. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 Chinese ports was 146.2763 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.5825 million tons. In the short term, the low port inventory supports the iron ore price, and the negative impact of the loosening supply on the market is expected to take time to transmit [1]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply-demand changes and inventory, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - Rebar: Investors are advised to take a volatile approach in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot-rolled and rebar [1]. - Hot-rolled coil: Investors are advised to take a high-level consolidation approach in the short term and pay attention to supply-demand changes [1]. - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the shock market after the decline stabilizes or the strength relationship between the two [1]. Group 5: Summary - Currently, the supply-demand pattern of iron ore has not significantly deteriorated, and the downside space of the market is limited. The positive macro sentiment has been released, and the iron ore futures price is in a volatile consolidation. Iron ore currently has strong rigid demand, and although the pig iron output has declined, it is still at a high level. The supply-demand contradiction may gradually accumulate in the future. Pay attention to short-selling opportunities after the short-term rebound ends [1].