BABA(09988) 天风证券·2025-05-21 11:45Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba-W (09988) is "Buy" with a target price set for the next six months [5][13]. Core Insights - Alibaba's revenue for FY25Q4 reached 236.5 billion yuan, with adjusted EBITDA of 41.8 billion yuan and a net profit of 30 billion yuan, indicating strong performance across its business segments [1]. - The Taobao Tmall Group generated 101.4 billion yuan in revenue, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus by 3.6%, driven by a 12% year-on-year increase in customer management revenue due to improved take rates [2]. - The cloud business reported 30.1 billion yuan in revenue, with an 18% year-on-year growth, primarily due to the rapid adoption of AI-related products, which have maintained triple-digit year-on-year growth for seven consecutive quarters [2]. - The AIDC segment achieved 33.6 billion yuan in revenue, with a 22% year-on-year increase, supported by strong cross-border business performance [3]. - Shareholder returns included a buyback of 6 billion USD for 51 million shares in FY25, and a total of 11.97 billion shares repurchased for 11.9 billion USD, resulting in a net reduction of 995 million shares [4]. Summary by Sections Taobao Tmall Group - Revenue for FY25Q4 was 101.4 billion yuan, with adjusted EBITDA of 41.7 billion yuan. Customer management revenue increased by 12% year-on-year, benefiting from improved take rates and ongoing investments in user growth and service optimization [2]. Cloud Business - Revenue for FY25Q4 was 30.1 billion yuan, with adjusted EBITDA of 2.4 billion yuan. The cloud segment's revenue grew by 18% year-on-year, driven by the increasing adoption of AI products across various industries [2]. AIDC - Revenue for FY25Q4 was 33.6 billion yuan, with adjusted EBITDA of -3.6 billion yuan. The segment's revenue grew by 22% year-on-year, focusing on operational efficiency and strategic market expansion [3]. Other Businesses - Cainiao generated 21.6 billion yuan in revenue with adjusted EBITDA of -610 million yuan. Local life services reported 16.1 billion yuan in revenue with adjusted EBITDA of -2.3 billion yuan [3]. Shareholder Returns - In FY25, Alibaba repurchased shares worth 11.9 billion USD, leading to a net reduction in shares outstanding. The board approved a total dividend of 0.25 USD per share, amounting to approximately 4.6 billion USD [4]. Investment Outlook - The report anticipates revenue growth for FY 2026-2028 to be 1,035.3 billion, 1,105.7 billion, and 1,179.8 billion yuan respectively, with net profit projections of 180.7 billion, 185.9 billion, and 195.7 billion yuan [5].