日度策略：棉花上行驱动较强，新能源金属跌势未止-20250521

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the commodity futures market, cotton has strong upward momentum, while new - energy metals continue to decline [1]. - A - shares are expected to maintain an upward - trending oscillation, but the market volume remains low, and structural differences still exist. Attention should be paid to the low - level long - entry opportunities for IM and IF [2]. - The bond market has a strong profit - taking sentiment, and there are significant uncertainties in both the macro and capital aspects. Caution is still needed [2]. - Gold prices are expected to be strong due to the escalation of the Gaza conflict and other factors. Silver follows the trend of gold [2][4]. - Copper prices are expected to oscillate within a range due to uncertainties in the macro - environment and cautious demand expectations [4]. - Alumina has a short - term supply shortage but a medium - term oversupply situation, and the price game intensifies. The price of Shanghai aluminum continues to oscillate strongly [4]. - Nickel prices will continue to oscillate within a range as the demand enters the off - season, and there are both supporting and suppressing factors [4]. - The supply of lithium carbonate is loose, and the demand increment is limited, so the price is expected to be weak [4]. - Industrial silicon futures are expected to maintain a weak trend due to the imbalance between supply and demand [6]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are expected to be weak in the second quarter, and iron ore has a long - term oversupply situation [6]. - The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to be weak due to supply - demand imbalances [6][8]. - The prices of soda ash and float glass are expected to be weak due to supply surpluses [8]. - Crude oil prices may rebound in the short term due to geopolitical uncertainties, but short - selling on rallies is recommended under the overall supply - surplus background [8]. - The polyester market may adjust in the short term, but it has strong support at the lower level [8][10]. - Methanol prices are expected to continue to decline due to cost and supply factors despite some demand improvements [10]. - Polyolefin prices are expected to decline as demand returns to a low level, and the rebound height is limited [10]. - Cotton prices are supported by the expected increase in export orders [10]. - Natural rubber prices are expected to be weak due to the increase in supply and decrease in demand [10]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On Tuesday, A - shares oscillated strongly, with small - and micro - cap stocks performing well. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased slightly to 1.21 trillion yuan (previous value: 1.12 trillion yuan). The media and commerce and retail sectors led the gains, while the national defense and military industry, coal, and real estate sectors declined slightly. Stock index futures rose with the spot index, with IM and IF leading the gains. After the contract roll - over, the spread decreased significantly, and the basis maintained a differentiated state of being stable in the near - term and weak in the long - term. Although there is a lack of significant fundamental and policy - driven support in the market recently, A - shares are expected to maintain an upward - trending oscillation under the promotion of long - term financial market - stabilizing policies. However, the market volume remains low, and structural differences still exist. Attention should be paid to the low - level long - entry opportunities for IM and IF [2]. Treasury Bonds - The LPR was lowered as expected, and the bond market had a strong profit - taking sentiment. Yesterday, treasury bond futures opened higher in the morning and then oscillated downward, with most contracts closing slightly lower. In terms of the macro - economy, domestic economic data is average, and there is no new progress in Sino - US trade relations, with medium - term uncertainties remaining. In terms of liquidity, the LPR was lowered by 10BP as expected, but it was less than the deposit - rate cut. The bond market shows a trend of "good news exhausted." Although long - term interest rates are expected to decline, there are significant uncertainties in both the macro and capital aspects of the bond market. Under the high - valuation pattern, the market is greatly affected by capital - market expectations, and overall caution is still needed [2]. Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - The escalation of the Gaza conflict has led to a resurgence of geopolitical risks, disturbing the market. The future US tariff policy remains highly uncertain, and the US still faces risks of economic stagflation and government debt pressure. The risks of restructuring the global trade pattern and monetary system under the trend of anti - globalization have not been eliminated. In the long - term, the situation is favorable for gold prices, and the support for gold prices near the long - term moving average is evident. The gold - silver ratio is high, and silver follows the trend of gold. For cautious investors, selling out - of - the - money put options or buying on dips can be considered [2][4]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Yesterday, copper prices oscillated higher in the morning and remained strong at night. In the macro - environment, the drag of tariffs is gradually weakening, and the market's expectation of the global economy has improved marginally, but uncertainties remain as the US is still in negotiations with most countries. The US dollar index continued to weaken, falling below 100. Domestic economic data is mixed, and the LPR was lowered by 10BP as expected. In terms of supply and demand, the decline in smelting processing fees has slowed down but remains at an absolute low. Exchange inventories have rebounded for several days, the support from the consumption peak season has faded, and demand expectations are cautious. Overall, due to the many uncertainties in the macro - environment, the weak US dollar index, and cautious demand expectations, copper prices are expected to oscillate within a range [4]. Aluminum and Alumina - Yesterday, alumina oscillated in the morning, dropped rapidly after the night - session opening, and then recovered part of the losses. Shanghai aluminum opened slightly higher and remained strong. In the macro - environment, the drag of tariffs is gradually weakening, and the market's expectation of the global economy has improved marginally, but uncertainties remain as the US is still in negotiations with most countries. The US dollar index continued to weaken, falling below 100. Domestic economic data is mixed, and the LPR was lowered by 10BP as expected. In terms of alumina, the Guinean government's ore policy remains uncertain, and there is no further progress for now. However, the ore production expansion in the first quarter was good, and China's bauxite imports from January to April maintained high growth. Attention should be paid to the duration of production stoppages. Domestically, there are still concerns about production cuts, but the medium - term oversupply expectation remains unchanged. Shanghai aluminum has limited directional drivers, and exchange inventories continue to decline. Overall, there is a divergence between the short - term supply shortage and medium - term oversupply of alumina, and the price game intensifies. Shanghai aluminum has rigid supply constraints, and attention should be paid to demand expectations, with the price continuing to oscillate strongly [4]. Nickel - In terms of supply, the increase in ore production is slow, and prices are still supported. Under high costs and weak demand, the price of ferronickel is stagnant, and the conversion to high - grade nickel matte may increase. In April, the imports and exports of refined nickel increased simultaneously, the supply did not tighten, and inventories oscillated at a high level. In terms of demand, the downstream consumption of stainless steel has entered the off - season, and steel mills are cautious in purchasing. Due to the continuous decline in the market share of ternary materials, the incremental demand for nickel from the new - energy sector is limited. Overall, as demand enters the off - season, the fundamentals are weak, but there are frequent disturbances in the resource end, and the ore price still supports the nickel industry chain. With the interweaving of long and short factors, there is no clear directional driver, and nickel prices will continue to oscillate within a range. Attention should be paid to the progress of nickel ore production expansion in Indonesia and the implementation of the Philippine export ban. For new orders, waiting for the opportunity to sell call options at the high end of the price range is recommended [4]. Energy and Chemicals Industrial Silicon - In terms of supply, there are rumors that large northwest factories plan to restart previously shut - down production capacities, and as the wet season approaches, southwest production capacities may resume supply, increasing market concerns about supply surpluses. In terms of demand, the latest production plan for polysilicon is about 94,000 tons, providing relatively limited support for the demand for upstream industrial silicon. Although the terminal demand for organic silicon has recovered, the incremental demand from monomer plants at this stage is insufficient. Overall, under the background of the intensified expectation of supply - demand imbalance and the weakening cost support, industrial silicon futures are expected to maintain a weak trend and remain in a short - position configuration [6]. Crude Oil - Geopolitical tensions have resurfaced as the Iran - US nuclear agreement negotiation has encountered setbacks, and Israel is preparing to attack Iranian nuclear facilities, bringing uncertainties to the market. In terms of supply, Saudi Arabia has repeatedly stated that it can tolerate low oil prices for a long time, and the consecutive two - month increase in production indicates a possible strategic shift towards increasing production and expanding market share. Attention should be paid to OPEC's production policy for July at the June meeting. Overall, short - term geopolitical uncertainties may cause oil prices to rebound, but short - selling on rallies is recommended under the overall supply - surplus background [8]. Polyester - In terms of PTA supply, the 1.2 - million - ton - per - year plant of Xinjiang Zhongtai restarted over the weekend and will officially produce products tomorrow. The plant was shut down for maintenance on March 31. The restart and maintenance of plants coexist, and the capacity utilization rate remained unchanged at 77.80% compared with the previous working day. In terms of ethylene glycol supply, the overall operating rate is 56.43% (an increase of 0.49%). As of May 19, the total inventory of MEG at major ports in East China was 63.73 million tons, a decrease of 2.65 million tons compared with last Thursday. In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate remains high, but there is an expectation of a decline in the future. The comprehensive sales - to - production ratio of polyester sample enterprises is 36.63%, and end - users have mostly replenished their inventories previously, so the inquiry willingness is weak in the short term. Overall, due to the poor cash flow of the polyester industry, there is an expectation of production cuts in the demand side, which has a negative impact on the market. The market may adjust in the short term, but it has strong support at the lower level [8][10]. Methanol - This week, the signing volume of northwest sample production enterprises is 4.29 million tons (a decrease of 0.96 million tons), which is at a relatively low level. Jiangsu Sierbang plans to restart soon, and the 600,000 - ton - per - year acetic acid plant of Hubei Qianxin has been successfully put into operation, which will improve the methanol demand in the surrounding areas. Affected by the shutdown of some coal mines and the concentrated procurement of coastal power plants, coal prices stopped falling this week, but the current social inventory is extremely high, and coal prices are still more likely to fall than rise. The arrival volume will increase significantly this week, and attention should be paid to the port inventory accumulation speed. Overall, although there are positive factors in demand, due to negative cost and supply factors, methanol prices are expected to continue to decline [10]. Polyolefin - Israel's preparation to attack Iranian nuclear facilities has led to a slight increase in international oil prices. Currently, the results of the Iran - US negotiation and the Russia - Ukraine peace negotiation are uncertain, and crude oil lacks a unilateral driver. The demand for rush - to - export is short - lived, and this week, the demand for polyolefins has returned to a low level, with the spot trading volume significantly slowing down, and factories generally lowering their quotes. The number of maintenance plants has increased, the operating rate of PE production enterprises has decreased by 2% compared with last week, and that of PP has decreased by 1%. The reduction in supply provides some support for prices. In the off - season, demand is difficult to improve, and even if crude oil prices rise or supply decreases, the rebound height of polyolefins is limited [10]. Building Materials Soda Ash - In May, the implementation of plant maintenance continued. Yesterday, Kunlun started maintenance, and the maintenance of Fatou was postponed. It is expected that the daily production of soda ash will drop to around 93,000 tons. However, last week, the new production capacity of Lianyungang Soda Industry was put into operation, and the output will gradually be released. The expansion cycle of soda ash production capacity has not ended, and the supply elasticity is high. Moreover, the raw material price has been continuously decreasing, and the theoretical profits of the three major production processes in the soda ash industry are positive. The sustainability of the concentrated large - scale maintenance of soda ash plants remains to be observed. According to the announced maintenance plan, the inventory digestion of soda ash is still limited, and the high inventory of upstream enterprises may continue to suppress prices. Overall, there is no clear signal for soda ash prices to stop falling. The previously recommended short position in the soda ash 09 contract can be held patiently, the stop - loss line can be lowered to lock in some profits in advance, and for new orders, short - selling on rallies is recommended [8]. Float Glass - In recent days, the speculative demand has been fair. Yesterday, the average sales - to - production ratio of the four major production areas dropped to 105.5% (- 7%). After the spot price dropped to a low level, it stimulated the purchasing demand of traders. However, in April, all real - estate investment indicators weakened. Yesterday, the central bank slightly lowered the LPR by 10 basis points, showing restraint in policy. The downward trend of the real - estate completion cycle has not ended, and seasonal effects will also appear. Without a significant reduction in supply, glass factories may continue to accumulate inventory passively during the off - season. Only when glass factories start a new round of cold - repairs can the pressure of supply - demand imbalance during the off - season be changed. Attention should be paid to the speed of cost reduction and its impact on the maintenance willingness of glass factories. Overall, before glass factories start a new round of cold - repairs, glass prices do not have the conditions to bottom out. It is recommended to hold the previously established short position in the FG509 contract and set a stop - loss line to lock in some profits in advance [8]. Agricultural Products Cotton - In terms of weather, there is precipitation in some areas of northern and southern Xinjiang, and the wind is relatively strong in some places. In terms of supply, as the temperature in Xinjiang continues to rise, most cotton fields have emerged and are generally in the true - leaf stage, with good overall growth. In terms of demand, the Sino - US tariff policy has eased, some previously suspended production and shipping orders have restarted, and the inventory pressure of textile enterprises' finished products has been relieved. In addition, there has been continuous rainfall in the US cotton - producing areas recently, and the drought ratio has decreased significantly. Overall, the unexpected reduction in Sino - US tariffs is expected to increase export orders. Attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas and macro - economic changes [10]. Natural Rubber - The automobile consumption stimulus policy has promoted the growth of terminal demand, but tire enterprises are restricted by the backlog of finished - product inventories, so the enthusiasm for starting production lines is difficult to significantly increase, and the willingness to stock up on rubber has also weakened. The port inventory reduction rhythm is generally slow, while the upstream rubber - tapping has entered the seasonal production - increasing period. The phenological conditions in domestic producing areas are better than in previous years, and the production in southern Thailand will also gradually increase. The fundamentals of natural rubber maintain a situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand. The strategy of selling call options should be continued to be held. Recently, attention should be paid to the recovery degree of export - driven demand under the background of the phased easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations [10]. Steel and Minerals Rebar - Yesterday, the spot price of rebar continued to be weak. The prices in Shanghai and Hangzhou remained stable, while that in Guangzhou dropped by 20. The spot trading volume was generally weak. In April, all real - estate investment data weakened. Yesterday, the central bank announced a 10 - basis - point reduction in the LPR, with the reduction being smaller than that of the deposit rate the previous day, showing restraint in interest - rate cuts to reserve room for future cuts. Steel still shows a pattern of relatively strong reality but weak expectation. As the temperature rises and rainfall in the south gradually increases, the impact of seasonal factors on the demand for construction steel will gradually appear in June. Domestic long - process rebar mills maintain a profit margin of about 100. Without strict production - restriction policies, the supply pressure may gradually accumulate in the demand off - season. It is maintained that rebar prices will be weak in the second quarter, and the short - term price range is [3000, 3150]. It is recommended to continue holding the position of selling out - of - the - money call options, RB2510C3250 [6]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Yesterday, the spot price of hot - rolled coil was weakly stable. The prices in Shanghai and Lecong remained stable, and the spot trading volume was average. Steel still shows a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation. The direct export of steel is strong, and steel mills have little pressure in recent order - taking. In terms of indirect export, home - appliance orders have improved. However, the comprehensive tariff rate imposed by the US on China is high, the external demand pressure in the second quarter has only been alleviated but not eliminated, and the suspension period is only 90 days, so there is still high uncertainty in long - term orders. Domestic long - process steel mills have good profits, and the supply pressure may gradually accumulate in the traditional demand off - season. It is expected that hot - rolled coil prices will be weak in the second quarter, and the short - term price range