银河期货每日早盘观察-20250521

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International soybean market supply is still relatively loose, while domestic soybean supply pressure exists, and soybean and related products are expected to show certain trends. Brazilian sugar is about to enter the peak - crushing season, with short - term sugar prices expected to be weak. The palm oil market in Malaysia may continue to increase production and inventory, and the domestic soybean oil inventory will also start to accumulate. The corn market has stable domestic spot prices and strong futures support. The pig market is expected to be weak. The peanut market has limited short - term rebound space. The egg supply is sufficient, and the apple market is expected to be slightly stronger. The cotton market is expected to be strong due to macro - level influence [3][10][19][28][34][39][50][55][61] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 - 外盘情况: CBOT soybean index rose 0.1% to 1050.25 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index fell 0.5% to $297.7 per short ton [2] - 相关资讯: Anec raised Brazil's May soybean and soybean meal export forecasts. EU's 2024/25 rapeseed and soybean meal imports increased compared to last year. South American soybean crushing and exports are growing. As of May 16, domestic oil mills' soybean actual crushing volume was 1.9055 million tons, with an operating rate of 53.56%. Soybean inventory increased by 9.71% week - on - week and 33.95% year - on - year, and soybean meal inventory increased by 20.26% week - on - week but decreased by 80.47% year - on - year [2] - 逻辑分析: International market supply is loose, and domestic soybean supply pressure exists, with soybean meal accumulating inventory [3] - 交易策略: For single - side trading, slightly layout long positions; for arbitrage, conduct M11 - 1 positive spread and expand MRM09 spread; for options, use the strategy of selling wide straddles [6] Sugar - 外盘情况: ICE US sugar fell 0.04 (0.23%) to 17.41 cents per pound [7] - 重要资讯: In April 2025, China's imports of syrup and premixed powder decreased year - on - year. Brazil's sugar exports in the first three weeks of May decreased by 42.92% year - on - year. The spot price of white sugar in Guangxi slightly decreased [8][9] - 逻辑分析: Brazilian sugar is about to enter the peak - crushing season, with short - term prices expected to be weak. Domestic sugar prices are stronger than raw sugar, but also expected to be weak [10] - 交易策略: For single - side trading, expect weak fluctuations and pay attention to extreme weather in Guangxi. For arbitrage, stay on the sidelines. For options, sell wide straddle options or out - of - the - money ratio spread options [11][12][13] Oilseeds and Oils - 外盘情况: Overnight, CBOT US soybean oil's main price changed by 1.33% to 49.57 cents per pound, and BMD Malaysian palm oil's main price changed by - 0.15% to 3904 ringgit per ton [15] - 相关资讯: MPOC expects the price of Malaysian palm oil to fluctuate between 3750 and 4050 ringgit in May and then gradually recover. Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 20 increased by 5.3% month - on - month. US soybean crushing profit increased by 7% week - on - week. In March 2025, Brazil processed 4.68 million tons of soybeans. China's April palm oil imports decreased by 6.35% month - on - month but increased by 6.44% year - on - year, and rapeseed imports increased by 98.26% month - on - month and 3.92% year - on - year [16][17][18] - 逻辑分析: Malaysian palm oil is expected to continue to increase production and inventory in May. Domestic soybean oil inventory will start to accumulate, and the basis may weaken. The domestic rapeseed oil supply exceeds demand, and the decline space is limited [19] - 交易策略: For single - side trading, expect short - term volatile operation and consider shorting palm oil at the upper limit of the range. For arbitrage, consider partial profit - taking and partial holding of YP09, and go long OI91 at low prices. For options, stay on the sidelines [20][21][22] Corn/Corn Starch - 外盘变化: CBOT corn futures rose 1.5%, with the main contract closing at 454.5 cents per bushel [25] - 重要资讯: The temperature and precipitation in the US corn - producing areas are abnormal. Argentina will extend the tax exemption for wheat exports. Heavy rainfall is affecting the US corn belt. As of May 15, US corn export inspection volume increased week - on - week. On May 21, the purchase price in the northern port was stable, and the price in the North China production area was also stable [26][27] - 逻辑分析: US corn is weak, while domestic corn has stable spot prices and strong futures support [28] - 交易策略: For single - side trading, the outer - market July corn has support at around 440 cents per bushel, and you can try to go long on July corn. For arbitrage, conduct oscillating operations on the corn - starch spread and expand it at low prices. For options, those with spot goods can consider the strategy of selling call options at high prices [29][31][32] Pig - 相关资讯: Pig prices are oscillating. As of May 20, the prices of piglets and sows changed slightly. On May 20, the national average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.7% [34] - 逻辑分析: After the previous price decline, the market's motivation to stabilize prices has increased, but the pig market is still expected to be weak [34] - 交易策略: For single - side trading, expect oscillating operation. For arbitrage, conduct LH79 reverse spread. For options, sell wide straddle options [35] Peanut - 重要资讯: Peanut prices in different regions are stable. The arrival volume and contract prices of peanut oil mills vary. Peanut oil prices are strong, while peanut meal sales are weak. As of May 15, domestic peanut inventory increased, and peanut oil inventory decreased [37][38] - 逻辑分析: Peanut spot trading is still scarce. The import volume has decreased significantly, and the downstream consumption is weak. The short - term rise of peanuts in October is limited [39] - 交易策略: For single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for October peanuts. For arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [41][42][43] Egg - 重要资讯: The average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas decreased. The national mainstream egg prices are mostly stable. In April, the number of laying hens in production increased. The weekly egg sales volume in the representative sales areas increased. The production and circulation inventory decreased. The average weekly profit per catty of eggs increased [45][46][49] - 交易逻辑: The overall egg supply is sufficient, and it is recommended to close out short positions and stay on the sidelines [50] - 交易策略: For single - side trading, close out short positions and stay on the sidelines. For arbitrage, go long on August eggs and short on September eggs. For options, stay on the sidelines [50][51][52] Apple - 重要资讯: As of April 16, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main production areas decreased, and the de - stocking was faster than the same period. In 2025, the cumulative export volume of fresh apples increased, and the import volume also increased. The mainstream apple prices in the origin were stable, and the profit of apple storage merchants increased [54][55] - 交易逻辑: The apple cold - storage inventory is at a low level, and the market supply is likely to be tight before the new fruit is launched. The new fruit season's weather has affected the fruit setting in some areas, and the apple price is expected to be slightly stronger [55] - 交易策略: For single - side trading, go long on AP10 at low prices. For arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [56] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - 外盘影响: ICE US cotton rose 0.44 (0.67%) to 66.12 cents per pound [58] - 重要资讯: As of May 18, the US cotton planting rate was 40%, slower than the same period last year and the five - year average. In April 2025, China's cotton imports decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The domestic spot trading of domestic cotton changed little, and the basis was relatively strong [59][60] - 交易逻辑: Due to the positive results of the Sino - US economic and trade talks, the cotton market is expected to be strong [61] - 交易策略: For single - side trading, both US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are expected to be slightly stronger. For arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [64][67]