有色小幅上涨

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Copper: The main copper futures price oscillated strongly above 78,000 yuan today, with a slight increase in open interest. The sharp rebound of precious metals may boost copper prices. Recently, the copper price has been oscillating around 78,000 yuan, and the monthly spread has continued to decline. After the peak season, the short - term social inventory of electrolytic copper has started to accumulate, pressuring the copper price. However, the domestic inventory is still at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, and the consumption expectation is good under domestic macro - stimulus. It is expected that the copper price will oscillate in the short term [5]. - Aluminum: The main aluminum futures price oscillated narrowly below 20,200 yuan today. At the industrial level, recent disturbances in the alumina ore end have led to an upward movement of the futures price, providing some support for the aluminum price. The destocking of aluminum ingot social inventory is normal and at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. It is expected that the futures price will maintain a strong operation, and attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [6]. - Nickel: The nickel price rebounded after hitting the bottom last night, and the main futures price oscillated around 123,000 yuan today. Since last week, the center of the nickel price has continued to move down, and the amplitude has narrowed. Currently, the nickel industry is neutral in the short term and bearish in the long term. It is expected that the futures price will maintain an oscillating operation. Technically, attention should be paid to the technical support at 123,000 yuan, but there is a lack of momentum for a rebound [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Copper: According to Ivanhoe Mines, the underground mining operation of the Kakula mine in the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo was suspended on May 18, 2025, due to multiple mine tremors in the eastern area of the Kakula mine last week [9]. - Aluminum: Data from the International Aluminium Institute shows that the global primary aluminum production in April 2025 was 6.033 million tons, compared with 5.901 million tons in the same period last year and a revised value of 6.237 million tons in the previous month. The estimated primary aluminum production in China in April was 3.621 million tons, with a revised value of 3.742 million tons in the previous month [9]. - Nickel: On May 21, for the refined nickel in the Shanghai market, the mainstream reference contract was the SHFE nickel 2506 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was + 2,150 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,570 yuan/ton; that of Russian nickel was + 350 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,770 yuan/ton; that of Norwegian nickel was + 2,600 yuan/ton, with a price of 126,020 yuan/ton; and that of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,520 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Related Charts - Copper: The report includes charts of copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][13][14]. - Aluminum: There are charts of aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, alumina trend, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), and alumina inventory [23][25][27]. - Nickel: The charts involve nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [34][36][38].