202505原油展望报告：强现实弱预期与伊朗原油扰动的叠加态

Report Title - 202505 Crude Oil Outlook Report: Superposition of Strong Reality, Weak Expectations, and Iranian Crude Oil Disturbance [1] Report Date - May 21, 2025 [2] Report Author - Xiao Yu, Investment Consulting License No.: Z0016296 [2] 1. Review Summary 1.1 4 - Month Crude Oil Outlook Report Review - 4 - Month Main View: In a sharply deteriorating macro - atmosphere, OPEC+ not only did not resist but accelerated production increases. The $70 support level for Brent crude oil became an insurmountable resistance level. With continued macro - turmoil, market confidence was increasingly fragile, and a bearish view was maintained [7]. - Market Review: Sino - US trade negotiation results drove a limited market rebound, and subsequent changes in US - Iran negotiations were the main factor causing short - term oil price fluctuations [8]. 1.2 5 - Month Main View - Fundamentals: There is a situation of strong reality and weak expectations, with a long - term bearish outlook. OPEC+ accelerating production increases may become the norm, and the relationship between US and Iranian crude oil is the biggest short - term market disturbance factor [9]. - Non - fundamentals: The US has entered a general tariff suspension period, but future pressure remains [9]. - May Conclusion: With OPEC+'s signal of accelerating production increases becoming clearer and long - term macro - pressure still existing, oil prices tend to be weak in the medium and long term. However, currently, crude oil is in a seasonally strong reality state, and with the outcome of Iranian crude oil still to be determined, the short - term market may maintain a weak and volatile trend [9]. 2. Crude Oil Market Analysis 2.1 Near - Month Spreads Indicate Tight Spot Supply and Demand - International crude oil market spreads are above the 0 axis, indicating that current supply and demand can still match. Current market negative factors are mainly concentrated in expectations, such as OPEC+ likely to continue accelerating production increases after July or a possible slowdown in macro - economic growth due to trade frictions [14]. 2.2 Manifestation of Strong Reality and Weak Expectations in the Forward Curve - Although crude oil is in a contango structure in the longer term, the near - end is in a back structure. Near - end premiums mean that downstream needs to pay an additional premium to obtain spot goods. Even at the recent low point of crude oil prices on the morning of May 12, the Nike - shaped forward structure was maintained, reflecting strong reality and weak expectations [17]. 2.3 Manifestation of Strong Reality and Weak Expectations in Institutional Monthly Reports - Three major institutions (IEA, OPEC, EIA) made different adjustments to demand in their May reports but still had a long - term bearish view of the oil market. Most reports believe that non - OPEC+ supply growth has exceeded global demand growth, and OPEC+ is eager to accelerate production increases [18]. 2.4 Manifestation of Strong Reality and Weak Expectations in the Seasonal Peak Demand Period - The third quarter is the traditional peak consumption season for crude oil. Seasonal demand growth in Q3 can slightly offset the negative impact of supply growth. It is expected that the strong reality in the crude oil market will gradually weaken in the middle of the third quarter, and the forward structure will gradually change to a full contango structure [21]. 2.5 Large - Scale Production Increases Benefit Saudi Arabia in the Long Run - Saudi Arabia's economy is closely related to oil prices. Usually, it stabilizes oil prices, but in extreme cases, it promotes large - scale production increases to reshape the market structure. The 2020 large - scale production increase allowed OPEC+ to enjoy high oil prices for nearly 4 years [24]. 2.6 OPEC+ Current Situation and Possible Actions - OPEC+ is facing external pressure from non - OPEC+ production increases and internal contradictions such as member over - production. If internal problems cannot be resolved, it may turn to a unified external stance. The current macro - instability provides an opportunity for production increases [25]. 2.7 OPEC+ Production Increase Plans and Intentions - OPEC+ continued to accelerate production increases in May, and the production quota in June was equivalent to the original plan for October. OPEC+ may quickly increase production before October and gradually cancel voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day if member compliance does not improve. This strategy may be led by Saudi Arabia to gain a larger market share [28]. 2.8 OPEC+ Policy Timeline in 2025 - OPEC+ maintained the original production increase plan on March 3, causing oil prices to fall below $70/barrel. The compensatory production cuts on March 20 showed its willingness to support oil prices. The acceleration of production increases on April 3 was puzzling, and the decision on May 3 clearly showed the organization's determination to increase production [31]. 2.9 Reference: Oil Prices Required to Hit Main Competitors - The average operating cost of old wells in the US is $41/barrel, and that of new wells is $65/barrel. Oil prices below $65/barrel will seriously affect US crude oil production growth, and below $41/barrel will affect existing production [37]. 2.11 Attention to Iranian Crude Oil Disturbance - Iran is willing to sign a nuclear agreement under certain conditions to lift economic sanctions, but there are still differences between the US and Iran. There are new variables such as Israel's possible attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. The outcome of US - Iran negotiations is expected to be limitedly optimistic [43][45]. 2.12 Complex Middle East Situation - Under the combined influence of long - term US sanctions and the Palestine - Israel conflict, Iran's regional influence has been temporarily weakened. There are complex relationships among countries in the Middle East [47]. 2.13 Persistent Macro - Pressure - US confidence and retail sales data have declined, and manufacturing is in a downward trend. Although CPI has decreased, the Fed refuses to cut interest rates due to potential tariff war impacts. The US is in a tariff suspension period, but tariffs may resume after the suspension, adding pressure on oil prices during OPEC+'s production increase period [49]