玉米淀粉日报-20250521

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US corn planting progress is accelerating, and the US corn price is in a bottom - range oscillation. With the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, the US corn price has strong bottom support. The domestic corn price is expected to be bullish in the short - term due to factors such as reduced imports of grains, low inventory of traders in North China, and expected feed enterprise procurement in May. In the medium - to - long - term, policy grain auctions are expected in June. The corn starch price is mainly affected by corn price and downstream procurement. Although the inventory has slightly increased this week, it is expected to have short - term support, but the enterprise may be in a long - term loss state due to weak demand [5][8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Data - Futures Market: For corn futures (C2601, C2505, C2509), the closing prices are 2249, 2261, and 2347 respectively, with increases of 0.31%, 0.13%, and 0.51%. For corn starch futures (CS2601, CS2505, CS2509), the closing prices are 2654, 2643, and 2738 respectively, with changes of 0.30%, - 0.19%, and 0.33%. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also have different degrees of change [3]. - Spot and Basis: Corn spot prices vary in different regions, such as 2210 yuan in Qinggang and 2468 yuan in Zhucheng Xingmao. The basis also shows different values. Starch spot prices are relatively stable, with prices ranging from 2750 to 2970 yuan. The basis of starch is positive [3]. - Spreads: Corn inter - month spreads (e.g., C01 - C05 is - 12 with a change of 4), starch inter - month spreads (e.g., CS01 - CS05 is 11 with a change of 13), and cross - variety spreads (e.g., CS09 - C09 is 391 with a change of - 3) are presented [3]. Second Part: Market Judgment - Corn: The US corn price has strong bottom support. The domestic northern port flat - hatch price has declined, and the Northeast corn spot price has stabilized. The supply in North China has decreased, and the corn price is weak. The wheat price in North China is stable, and wheat is gradually substituting for corn. The domestic breeding demand is still weak, but the supply is low, so the corn spot price will rise in the short - term. The reduction of imported grains is expected to be beneficial to the spot market. The corn price is expected to be strong, with short - term support at 2400 yuan/ton in North China and 2150 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang. In the medium - to - long - term, policy grain auctions are expected in June [5][8]. - Starch: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, and the corn price in Shandong is relatively stable. The starch price in Shandong is around 2860 yuan, and the Northeast starch spot price is also strong. The corn starch inventory has slightly increased this week, reaching 142.9 million tons. The starch price is mainly affected by corn price and downstream procurement. In the medium - to - long - term, due to weak demand, enterprises will be in a long - term loss state, but the profit will be repaired. The 07 starch contract is expected to have support at around 2650 [9]. Third Part: Trading Strategies - Unilateral Trading: The domestic 07 corn contract is expected to oscillate in a narrow range, and short - term long positions can be considered [11]. - Arbitrage: Hold the strategy of buying spot and shorting 07 corn. Expand the spread between 09 corn and starch when the spread is low and conduct oscillatory operations [14]. - Option Strategy: Enterprises with spot positions can sell corn call options [15]. Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The attachments include various charts such as the spot price of corn in different regions, the basis of corn 09 contract, the 9 - 1 spread of corn and corn starch, the basis and spread of corn starch 09 contract, which visually show the price trends and relationships of different periods and varieties [17][20][23].