Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for ZTO Express [5] Core Views - ZTO Express reported Q1 2025 results with revenue of 10.892 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, and adjusted net profit of 2.259 billion CNY, up 1.6%, which met expectations [5] - The volume growth has returned, with high service quality driving significant growth in the company's parcel business. In Q1 2025, the company handled 8.539 billion parcels, a 19.1% year-on-year increase, slightly below the industry growth rate of 21.6%. The parcel business volume grew by 46% year-on-year, benefiting from the company's expansion in the returns sector and deepening collaborations with e-commerce platforms and corporate clients [5] - Core costs continue to improve despite increasing industry competition, indicating resilience in performance. The report notes a decrease in per parcel sorting cost to 0.27 CNY and transportation cost to 0.41 CNY, with a total core cost reduction of 0.09 CNY. The company maintains a projected business volume growth rate of 20%-24% for 2025 [5] - The profit forecast has been slightly adjusted downwards due to competitive pressures in the express delivery industry. The adjusted net profit estimates for 2025-2027 are 9.54 billion CNY, 10.53 billion CNY, and 12.05 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of -6%, 10%, and 14% respectively [5] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue (CNY million): 2023: 38,419; 2024: 44,281; 2025E: 48,669; 2026E: 55,122; 2027E: 62,067 [2] - Adjusted Net Profit (CNY million): 2023: 9,006; 2024: 10,150; 2025E: 9,540; 2026E: 10,531; 2027E: 12,045 [2] - Net Asset Return Rate (%): 2023: 14.52; 2024: 13.33; 2025E: 13.87; 2026E: 14.27; 2027E: 15.27 [2] - Price-to-Earnings Ratio (x): 2023: 11.2; 2024: 10.0; 2025E: 10.6; 2026E: 9.6; 2027E: 8.4 [2] - Price-to-Book Ratio (x): 2023: 1.7; 2024: 1.6; 2025E: 1.3; 2026E: 1.1; 2027E: 1.0 [2]
中通快递-W（02057）：行业竞争加剧，静待格局优化