银河期货煤炭日报-20250521

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The coal market currently has an overall ample supply. Although the coal price at ports continues to decline, the decline is expected to gradually slow down as the temperature rises and power plants increase their inventory replenishment. The demand for chemical coal in the pit - mouth area is fair, but the support from power plant long - term contracts is weakening [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - On May 21, the port market was mainly in a wait - and - see mode, with traders' quotes weakly stable. For example, the 5500 - calorie market was quoted at 615 - 620 yuan/ton, and different regions had different price ranges for various coal calorific values [3]. Important News - In April, the total social electricity consumption was 772.1 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%. The electricity consumption of the first, second, third industries and urban and rural residents all increased to varying degrees [4]. Logical Analysis - Supply: The pit - mouth price continued to decline, and the coal mine operating rate in the main producing areas of Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia decreased. As of May 20, the coal mine operating rate in Ordos was 68%, and in Yulin it was 46%. The daily coal output in Ordos and Yulin was around 3.9 - 4 million tons, and the overall domestic supply was still abundant. The imported coal price followed the decline of the domestic coal price [5]. - Demand: The current power load was only maintained at about 60%, and some power plants' inventories were saturated, so power plants' procurement strategies were cautious. The cement operating rate at the non - power end was low, while the operating rates of coal - to - methanol and coal - to - urea were high, and the demand for chemical coal was fair [5]. - Inventory: The port inventory was high, and the port began to restrict coal loading. The daily transportation volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Line decreased to 1 million tons, and the number of approved carriages by the Hohhot Railway Bureau decreased to around 30. As of May 21, the inventory of Bohai Rim ports was around 29.76 million tons, a decrease of 1.5 million tons from the high level, but still high. The daily consumption of coastal power plants was low, and the inventory reduction was slow. The total inventory of national power plants remained at a high level in the same period of previous years, and the inventory reduction speed was slow [5]. - Overall situation: In late May, the coal production in the main producing areas was stable, and the overall supply was still relatively abundant. Power plants' inventory reduction was slow, and due to the impact of imported coal, power plants only maintained rigid - demand procurement. The port inventory increased passively, and the available resources for sale were abundant. The port FOB price continued to decline, but the decline was expected to slow down [5].