强弱分化,能化涨跌互现
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-05-21 12:43
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower on Wednesday. As the previous positive factors were gradually digested, the rubber market entered a weakly divergent stage. It is expected that the contract may maintain a weakly fluctuating trend in the future [4]. - The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract showed a trend of increasing volume and reducing positions, fluctuating strongly, and closing slightly higher on Wednesday. With the expected increase in external imports and the increasing pressure on social inventory accumulation in the future, and the weak supply - demand structure of methanol, it is expected that the contract may maintain a weakly fluctuating trend in the future [4]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract showed a trend of increasing volume and reducing positions, fluctuating and rebounding, and closing slightly higher on Wednesday. Due to the information from the US intelligence department indicating that Israel is preparing to attack Iranian nuclear facilities, under the background of strengthened geopolitical risks, it is expected that the prices of domestic and foreign crude oil futures may maintain a stable fluctuating trend in the future [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of May 18, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 614,200 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.73%. The bonded area inventory was 92,100 tons, an increase of 2.34%; the general trade inventory was 522,100 tons, a decline of 1.25%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 1.54 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.25 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.06 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.20 percentage points [8]. - As of the week of May 16, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong was 59.88%, a significant week - on - week increase of 15.08% and a slight year - on - year decrease of 3.02 percentage points. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 71.21%, a significant week - on - week increase of 12.81 percentage points and a slight year - on - year decrease of 5.29 percentage points [8]. - In April 2025, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks in China was about 90,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 19% and an increase of about 9.4% compared with 82,300 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to April this year, the cumulative sales volume of heavy - duty trucks in China was about 355,000 vehicles, showing the same level as the same period of the previous year [8]. - In April 2025, the production and sales of automobiles in China were 2.619 million and 2.59 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% and 9.8%. From January to April 2025, the production and sales of automobiles in China were 10.175 million and 10.06 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.9% and 10.8%. Notably, for the first time in history, the production and sales of automobiles in China both exceeded 10 million in the first four months [9]. Methanol - As the spring maintenance of domestic methanol plants came to an end, the domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output rebounded. As of the week of May 16, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 83.68%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.46%, a month - on - month slight increase of 3.46%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 10.48%. The average weekly output of methanol in China reached 1.9911 million tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 66,700 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 40,500 tons, and a significant increase of 388,700 tons compared with 1.6024 million tons in the same period of the previous year [10]. - As of the week of May 16, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 29.02%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.03%. The operating rate of dimethyl ether was maintained at 9.17%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.52%. The operating rate of acetic acid was maintained at 94.67%, a week - on - week slight increase of 2.09%. The operating rate of MTBE was maintained at 41.11%, a week - on - week significant decline of 5.30%. As of the week of May 16, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 77.64%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.91 percentage points and a month - on - month slight decline of 0.7% [11]. - As of the week of May 16, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 390,100 tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 25,000 tons, a month - on - month significant decrease of 60,100 tons, and a slight decrease of 20,900 tons compared with the same period of the previous year. The methanol inventory in East China ports reached 218,000 tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 20,600 tons, and the methanol inventory in South China ports reached 172,100 tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 4,400 tons. As of the week of May 15, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 335,900 tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 32,000 tons, an increase of 10.53%, a month - on - month slight increase of 23,500 tons, and a slight decrease of 44,100 tons compared with 380,000 tons in the same period of the previous year [11][12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 474, a week - on - week slight decrease of 5 and a decrease of 22 compared with the same period of the previous year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.387 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 20,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 287,000 barrels per day [13]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 441.83 million barrels, a week - on - week significant increase of 3.454 million barrels and a significant decrease of 15.189 million barrels compared with the same period of the previous year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma reached 23.892 million barrels, a week - on - week significant decrease of 1.069 million barrels; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory reached 399.65 million barrels, a month - on - month significant increase of 2.641 million barrels. The operating rate of US refineries was maintained at 90.2%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.2 percentage points, a month - on - month slight increase of 3.9 percentage points, and a year - on - year slight decrease of 0.20 percentage points [13]. - Since May 2025, the international crude oil futures prices have shown a weakly fluctuating trend, with the long - making forces in the market increasing and decreasing alternately. As of May 13, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil futures were maintained at 185,301 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 9,873 contracts, and a significant increase of 24,938 contracts compared with the April average of 160,363 contracts, an increase of 15.55%. At the same time, as of May 13, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 145,373 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 49,217 contracts, and a significant decrease of 8,932 contracts compared with the April average of 154,305 contracts, a decrease of 5.79%. Overall, the net long positions in the WTI crude oil futures market increased significantly week - on - week, while the net long positions in the Brent crude oil futures market also increased significantly week - on - week [14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,900 yuan/ton | - 100 yuan/ton | 14,820 yuan/ton | - 120 yuan/ton | + 120 yuan/ton | + 80 yuan | | Methanol | 2,362 yuan/ton | - 13 yuan/ton | 2,270 yuan/ton | + 14 yuan/ton | - 14 yuan/ton | + 92 yuan | | Crude Oil | 455.7 yuan/barrel | + 0.1 yuan/barrel | 470.1 yuan/barrel | + 4.7 yuan/barrel | - 4.7 yuan/barrel | - 14.5 yuan | [15] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: Charts include rubber basis, rubber 9 - 1 spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [16][18][20] - Methanol: Charts include methanol basis, methanol 9 - 1 spread, methanol inventory in domestic ports, methanol inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [29][31][33] - Crude Oil: Charts include crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [42][44][46]