Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The overall supply of eggs is expected to remain sufficient, with a high inventory of laying hens. After the egg price has dropped to the current level, it shows signs of stabilization recently. It is recommended to close out the previous short positions and wait and see [10]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Fundamental Information - Price and Market Conditions: The average price in the main producing areas today is 3.01 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous trading day. The average price in the main selling areas is 3.2 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.4 yuan/jin from the previous trading day. Most of the mainstream egg prices across the country remained stable today [6]. - Laying Hen Inventory: In April, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.329 billion, an increase of 0.11 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. Without considering delayed culling and concentrated culling, the estimated inventory of laying hens from May to August 2025 is approximately 1.332 billion, 1.337 billion, 1.345 billion, and 1.349 billion respectively [7]. - Chick Hatch and Culling: In April, the monthly chick hatch volume of sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information (accounting for about 50% of the country) was 46.985 million, a month - on - month increase of 1.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. From May 16th, the weekly culling volume of laying hens in the main producing areas was 18.56 million, an increase of 7.5% from the previous week. The average culling age of culled hens in the week of May 15th was 534 days, a decrease of 1 day from the previous week [7]. - Egg Sales and Inventory: As of the week of May 15th, the egg sales volume in the representative selling areas was 8716 tons, an increase of 1.4% from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.92 days, a decrease of 0.27 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1 day, a decrease of 0.33 days from the previous week [8]. - Profit: As of May 16th, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.12 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous week. On May 9th, the expected profit of laying hen farming was 20.15 yuan/hen, an increase of 0.8 yuan/jin from the previous week. Today, the average price of culled hens in the main producing areas was 5.03 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous trading day [8][9]. II. Trading Logic The overall supply of eggs is expected to remain sufficient, and the inventory of laying hens is high. After the egg price has dropped to the current level, it shows signs of stabilization recently. It is recommended to close out the previous short positions and wait and see [10]. III. Trading Strategies - Single - side: Wait and see [11]. - Arbitrage: Consider going long on the August contract and short on the September contract [12]. - Options: Wait and see [13].
银河期货鸡蛋日报-20250521
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-05-21 13:08