银河期货农产品日报-20250521

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an apple daily report from the Commodity Research Institute, dated May 21, 2024 [2] Group 2: Market Information Spot Prices - The Fuji apple price index is 108.50, up 0.24 from the previous trading day. The average wholesale price of 6 fruits is 7.70, down 0.13 [3] - Prices of various apple varieties such as Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bag 70, Qixia first and second - grade paper - bag 80, etc., remained stable compared to the previous trading day [3] Futures Prices - AP01 closed at 7619, down 104 from the previous close; AP05 closed at 7766, down 83; AP10 closed at 0, down 7784 [3] - The spreads between different contracts also changed, e.g., AP01 - AP05 was - 147, down 21 [3] Basis - The basis of Qixia first and second - grade 80 against AP01 is 581, up 104; against AP05 is 434, up 83; against AP10 is 8200, up 7784 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Apple Market News - As of May 16, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of China was 2.2886 million tons, a decrease of 379,100 tons from the previous week, and the current cold - storage inventory is at a five - year low [4] - Yesterday, the mainstream price of apples in the producing areas remained stable. The supply of slice - red apples was tight with good demand, and the mainstream transaction price showed a firming trend. Other specifications' prices remained stable. Cold - storage trading volume was average, and most merchants had completed their Dragon Boat Festival stocking [7] - The profit of Qixia 80 first and second - grade apple storage merchants in the 2024 - 2025 production season is 0.9 yuan per catty, up 0.2 yuan per catty from last week [7] - In Shandong Yantai Qixia, the demand for slice - red apples is good. The price ranges for different types of apples are provided, and the overall transaction is stable. In Shaanxi Yan'an Luochuan, the cold - storage apple price is stable, with less remaining inventory in the warehouse and merchants reluctant to sell [8] Trading Logic - This year's apple cold - storage inventory is at the lowest level since 2019. Before the new apples are on the market, the market supply is likely to be tight. The current market sales are okay, and the spot price is strong, which supports the apple price. In addition, the windy and hot - dry weather in the western producing areas in April affected apple fruit - setting in some areas. It is expected that the apple price will continue to fluctuate slightly upwards [9] Trading Strategies - For the single - side strategy, it is recommended to build long positions in AP10 at low prices in the short term [10] - For the arbitrage and option strategies, it is recommended to wait and see [11][12] Group 4: Related Attachments - The report includes 10 related charts, such as the price chart of Qixia first and second - grade paper - bag 80 apples, the price chart of Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bag 70 apples, and the chart of AP contract main basis [16][18][22]