策略日报（2025.05.21）：量能不足，维持轮动-20250521

Group 1 - The report indicates that the bond market is experiencing slight increases in short-term rates and slight decreases in long-term rates, with expectations of a small adjustment following the interest rate cut, while the long-term outlook remains bullish due to weak fundamentals driving new highs in the bond market [4][13]. - The A-share market shows a slight upward trend with insufficient trading volume, and it is expected to continue a rotational rise until the trading volume effectively breaks through 1.5 trillion [5][17]. - The U.S. stock market has recovered all losses from the trade war, with the potential for new highs due to upcoming tax cuts and significant stock buybacks by companies like Apple and Google, although concerns about unsustainable debt levels are emerging [23][24]. Group 2 - The report highlights that the onshore RMB against the USD closed at 7.2035, down 159 basis points, but is expected to appreciate towards 7.1 due to favorable trade conditions [6][26]. - The commodity market saw a 0.28% increase in the Wenhua Commodity Index, with precious metals and feed sectors leading the gains, although the overall structure remains bearish with expectations of continued fluctuations [27][30]. - Important domestic policies include the completion of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiations, which is expected to enhance cooperation and market expansion between China and ASEAN countries [34].