Ithaca Energy PLC：伊萨卡能源有限公司：又一个季度，又一次超出预期-20250521

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Ithaca Energy PLC is Equal-weight with a price target of 141p, while the current share price is 129p [7]. Core Insights - Ithaca Energy reported a 14% beat in 1Q25 EBITDAX, with adjusted EBITDAX of $653.2 million compared to consensus of $574.6 million, primarily driven by production performance and low operating expenses [3][10]. - The company achieved a strong production performance in 1Q25, averaging approximately 127.4 kboe/d, which is about 10% above consensus estimates [4][10]. - Cash flow from operations (CFFO) before working capital changes was $625.2 million, exceeding consensus by 3%, while free cash flow (FCF) was 11% higher than expected at $451.2 million [5][10]. - Ithaca's net debt at the end of 1Q25 was $792.4 million, a decline from $884.9 million at the end of 4Q24, despite a negative underlift impact of approximately $160 million [6][10]. - The company maintained its 2025 production guidance of 105-115 kboe/d, with updates reflecting the impact of an additional stake in the Cygnus field [11][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 1Q25 EBITDAX was $653.2 million, 14% above consensus [3]. - Average production in 1Q25 was ~127.4 kboe/d, 10% above consensus [4]. - CFFO before working capital changes was $625.2 million, 3% above consensus [5]. Debt and Cash Flow - Adjusted net debt at the end of 1Q was $792.4 million, down from $884.9 million [6]. - FCF ex working capital changes was $451.2 million, 11% higher than consensus [5]. Guidance and Future Outlook - 2025 production guidance maintained at 105-115 kboe/d, with updates due to the Cygnus field stake [11]. - Potential exit rate for 2025 is highlighted at ~135 kboe/d, including contributions from recent acquisitions [12].