固收专题：财政数据，验证经济状态、政策取向

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The "broad fiscal" policy continues to exert force, promoting economic normalization and continuous recovery, and the business environment for enterprises is improving [6]. - The bond market will experience the second "self - correction" in 2025, with yields likely to rise due to profit - taking as the economy improves [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Income Side - In April 2025, the non - tax revenue growth rate was 1.66%, the lowest in nearly a year, indicating that the local government's fiscal stress has been significantly relieved and the business environment for enterprises is improving [4]. - In April 2025, the tax revenue growth rate was 1.91%, returning to positive growth, better than the negative growth in Q2 and Q3 of 2024, reflecting the boost of economic recovery on tax revenue [4]. - In April 2025, the land transfer revenue growth rate was 4.27%, turning positive again and reaching the highest since 2021, indicating that land transfer has become normal [4]. Expenditure Side - In April 2025, the general fiscal expenditure growth rate was 5.8%, significantly higher than that in Q2 and Q3 of 2024 and higher than the 2025 annual fiscal expenditure plan target of 4.4%, indicating strong fiscal expenditure intensity [5]. - In April 2025, the government - funded expenditure growth rate reached 45%, the highest since 2022, showing that government - funded expenditure has gradually become normal [5]. Fiscal Policy Impact - The "broad fiscal" policy does not depend on the issuance of special treasury bonds but on the "fiscal expenditure growth rate". After September 2024, the economy recovered as fiscal expenditure growth accelerated without the issuance of special treasury bonds. The requirement of the Politburo meeting on April 25 may mean further acceleration of fiscal expenditure [7]. Bond Market Outlook - The current bond market still implies a 20 - 50bp interest rate cut expectation. As the broad fiscal policy and fiscal expenditure intensity accelerate, the economy in April - May is expected to continue to improve, and the bond market may self - correct with yields rising due to profit - taking [8]. - The central bank's core of observing and evaluating the bond market is to form a "normally upward - sloping yield curve". Currently, the bond yield curve is flat or inverted, and the central bank may take regulatory measures to push up long - term yields [8]. - With the weakening impact of reciprocal tariffs and the implementation of broad fiscal and credit policies, the current may be the annual economic low point. The probability of the central bank cutting interest rates again is low, and the bond market is expected to return to a reasonable level corresponding to the policy rate, with the 10 - year treasury bond yield at around 1.8% - 2.1% [8].