LPR降息与存款挂牌利率下调解读：非对称降息呵护息差，基本面向好可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the banking sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - The recent LPR (Loan Prime Rate) cut by 10 basis points aims to lower the overall financing costs in society, which is expected to stimulate domestic demand and alleviate financial pressure on enterprises [4][10]. - The reduction in deposit rates is more significant than the LPR cut, which aligns with the central bank's goal of reducing banks' funding costs, thereby supporting the stability of bank interest margins [4][10]. - The banking sector's net interest margin (NIM) is projected to stabilize, with an estimated increase of 4.96 basis points due to the recent monetary policy adjustments [4][10]. - The report highlights that banks with a higher proportion of time deposits, such as rural commercial banks and city commercial banks, will benefit more from the interest margin improvements [4][10]. Summary by Sections LPR and Deposit Rate Adjustments - The LPR has been adjusted to 3% for 1-year loans and 3.5% for 5-year loans, while major banks have lowered their deposit rates across various terms [4][5]. - The adjustments include a 5 basis point reduction in demand deposits to 0.05% and a 15 basis point reduction in 3-month, 6-month, 1-year, and 2-year fixed deposits [4][5]. Impact on Banking Sector - The average net interest margin for listed banks in 2024 is expected to be 1.61%, a year-on-year decrease of 17 basis points, with the first quarter of 2025 showing a net interest margin of 1.43% [4][10]. - The report estimates that the recent deposit rate cuts could enhance the net interest margin of listed banks by approximately 9.07 basis points, while the LPR cut would reduce it by 5.97 basis points [10]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the banking sector is poised for a recovery, with a favorable outlook for earnings due to recent financial policies and structural tools [4][10]. - Specific stock recommendations include Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398), China Construction Bank (601939), Postal Savings Bank of China (601658), Jiangsu Bank (600919), and Changshu Bank (601128) [4].