能言汇说：受惠关税战降温，澳元上望0.66

Group 1: Currency Performance - The Australian dollar (AUD) has shown weakness since the beginning of the year, trading between 0.62 and 0.64 against the USD in Q1 2025[1] - Since April 9, 2025, the AUD has rebounded significantly from a low of 0.5915, rising for seven consecutive trading days and stabilizing above the 50-day moving average[1] - On May 7, 2025, the AUD reached a high of 0.6515 but failed to break through the 250-day moving average, currently trading around 0.642[1] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has reduced interest rates by 0.25% to 3.85% following a series of rate cuts that began in February 2025[2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Q1 2025 showed an annual increase of 2.4%, slightly above the market expectation of 2.3%[2] Group 3: Trade Relations and Future Outlook - Recent positive developments in global trade include a significant reduction in tariffs between the US and China, with US tariffs on Chinese goods dropping from 145% to 30% and Chinese tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10%[2] - If US-China trade relations continue to improve, it is expected that commodity currencies, including the AUD, will benefit significantly[2] - The forecast for the AUD/USD exchange rate in the second half of 2025 is neutral to positive, with support at 0.61 and resistance around 0.69, contingent on breaking the 250-day moving average at approximately 0.649[2]