资产配置日报：内优，外患-20250521

Market Overview - On May 21, domestic stock indices maintained a slight upward trend while the bond market experienced short-term gains followed by longer-term declines. The Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and CSI Dividend rose by 0.21%, 0.47%, and 0.76% respectively, while the STAR 50 index fell by 0.22% [2] - The bond market saw yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds rise by 0.8 basis points and 1.3 basis points to 1.67% and 1.92% respectively [2] International Developments - Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating has led to increased selling pressure on US assets, causing a "sell America" trade to gain traction. The anticipated passage of Trump's tax cut plan is expected to further increase the deficit and push US bond prices down [3] - In Japan, investors are challenging the central bank's bond-buying program, leading to a significant rise in long-term Japanese bond yields. In the UK, April inflation data exceeded expectations, prompting traders to bet on a slower pace of interest rate cuts by the Bank of England [3] Liquidity and Monetary Policy - The liquidity situation is gradually improving, with the central bank conducting a reverse repurchase operation of 157 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 65 billion yuan. Since May 15, the central bank has injected a total of 363.5 billion yuan into the market [4] - Overnight rates have decreased, with R001 and R007 falling to 1.54% and 1.59% respectively, indicating a return to a relatively reasonable range compared to the 1.40% policy rate [4] Bond Market Insights - The bond market faces challenges due to a prolonged information vacuum. Following the recent deposit rate cuts by major banks, it may be difficult to find new bullish catalysts until July or August. The market consensus is shifting towards discovering yield spreads or coupon rates [5] - As of May 21, 3-year AA-rated municipal bonds still offer attractive value, while strategies for longer durations may consider 5-year AA-rated municipal bonds [5] Equity Market Trends - The market style has shifted towards large-cap stocks, with the CSI 300 and SSE 50 rising by 0.47% and 0.43% respectively, while the CSI 2000 and Wind Micro-cap indices fell by 0.80% and 0.94% [6] - The dividend sector outperformed, with the CSI Dividend index rising by 0.76%. This may be attributed to market rotation towards consumer sectors and favorable industry data, such as a 4.7% year-on-year increase in electricity consumption in April [7] Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 0.62% and 0.51% respectively, with the biopharmaceutical sector leading the gains. The AH share premium index has decreased, indicating a decline in the relative attractiveness of Hong Kong stocks compared to A-shares [8] Conclusion - Overall, the market is experiencing a temporary rotation towards large-cap stocks, with small-cap stocks facing pressure. The CSI 2000 index has stabilized after a significant pullback, suggesting that the trend of capital concentration has not yet shown signs of significant breakdown [9]