危地马拉公共财政评论

Investment Rating - The report indicates that Guatemala's sovereign risk rating is the lowest in Central America, with a budgetary central government deficit averaging 1.3 percent of GDP from 2021 to 2024 and a public debt stock of 26.4 percent of GDP in 2024, rated one notch below investment grade by Moody's and two notches by S&P and Fitch [22][18][19]. Core Insights - Guatemala has a track record of prudent fiscal policy but faces large spending needs, particularly in infrastructure and social spending, which are essential for boosting growth and reducing poverty [17][22]. - The government needs to increase revenues efficiently and fairly to meet its spending needs, as current revenues are too low to close the infrastructure gap and accelerate poverty reduction [23][27]. - The report identifies opportunities for increasing tax revenues through reforms in personal income tax (PIT), corporate income tax (CIT), value-added tax (VAT), and excise taxes, focusing on altering rate structures and reforming tax expenditures [27][28]. Summary by Sections Executive Summary - Guatemala has developed a prudent fiscal policy but has significant spending needs, with a fiscal deficit averaging 1.5 percent of GDP from 2019 to 2023 [17][18]. Revenue - Tax revenue in Guatemala was 14.4 percent of GDP in 2022, one of the lowest in the region, with potential to increase by 2-3 percentage points of GDP [27][24]. - The report emphasizes the need for legislative reforms to increase tax revenues, which must be supported by a robust political consensus [30][31]. Public Financial Management - The government has utilized performance-based budgeting since 2013, but improvements are needed to enhance expenditure efficiency and align budgeting with social priorities [36][37]. Fiscal Risks - The report highlights the importance of strengthening the management of fiscal risks, including those arising from climate change, to enable greater infrastructure investment and support investment-grade status [43][39].