超越骨料

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The paper introduces a sector-specific framework for long-term growth modeling that addresses the limitations of traditional top-down estimates, focusing on total-factor productivity (TFP) growth and structural transformation from low to high productivity sectors [3][9][10] - The model enhances the World Bank's semi-structural models for Ghana and the Kyrgyz Republic, demonstrating its potential to improve long-run growth dynamics analysis through structural change [3][75] Summary by Sections Introduction - Semi-structural macroeconomic models are widely used for macroeconomic projections and policy simulations, but often lack detailed sectoral representations and long-run dynamics [7][8] - The paper aims to enrich the supply side of a standard macro-structural model by incorporating sector-specific productivity, capital, and employment into sectoral supply functions [9] Endogenizing Structural Change - The proposed framework modifies the production block of the model to include sector-level production functions, allowing labor and capital to move between sectors [11][12] - The model retains core features of standard models while being sensitive to sectoral price weights and relative wage differentials [12][13] Sectoral Production Functions - The model employs Cobb-Douglas production functions at the sector level to define potential output, with actual sectoral output converging towards potential levels [15][16] - Aggregate potential GDP is calculated as the sum of sectoral potential outputs, accounting for net indirect taxes [18] Dynamics of Labor and Capital - The allocation of labor and capital across sectors is determined by relative costs and productivity, with the model allowing for endogenous structural change [30][36] - The framework captures the impact of sectoral productivity shocks on aggregate productivity, emphasizing the role of labor and capital reallocation [47][48] Application to Ghana and Kyrgyz Republic - The report illustrates the application of the sectoral framework using data from Ghana and the Kyrgyz Republic, highlighting the importance of data availability for effective modeling [75][76] - The analysis compares the effects of sector-specific shocks, such as agricultural droughts, within the new framework against standard models [76][77]