渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.05.22）-20250522

Macro and Strategy Research - In the first four months of 2025, national general public budget revenue was 80,616 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, while expenditure was 93,581 billion yuan, an increase of 4.6% year-on-year [2] - Government fund budget revenue was 12,586 billion yuan, down 6.7% year-on-year, while expenditure was 26,136 billion yuan, up 17.7% year-on-year [2] Public Finance Income - Public finance income continued to show negative growth, but the decline narrowed compared to the first three months, with tax revenue's year-on-year decline narrowing by 1.4 percentage points to -2.1% [3] - Corporate income tax revenue's year-on-year decline narrowed by 3.7 percentage points to -3.1%, indicating a potential improvement in corporate profitability [3] - Non-tax revenue growth rate fell compared to the first three months, but the overall structure of public finance income improved [3] Public Finance Expenditure - Public finance expenditure grew by 4.6% year-on-year, with a notable increase in spending on people's livelihood, which rose by 6.6% [3] - Social security and employment spending increased by 8.5%, while education spending rose by 7.4% [3] - Infrastructure spending continued to show negative growth but the decline narrowed, with infrastructure spending now accounting for less than 20% of total public finance expenditure, a new low in recent years [3] Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund revenue decreased by 6.7% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed compared to the first three months, with land transfer revenue's decline improving from -15.9% to -11.4% [4] - Government fund expenditure increased by 17.7% year-on-year, with central government expenditure growing by 75% and local government expenditure increasing by 16.6% [4] - The combination of public finance and government fund expenditure resulted in a year-on-year growth of 7.2% in broad fiscal expenditure [4] Industry Research - In April 2025, forklift sales reached 130,100 units, a year-on-year increase of 5.03% [6] - The operating rate of road construction equipment remained high, with significant growth in construction activity across 15 provinces [6] - Excavator sales from January to April totaled 83,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%, indicating strong domestic market performance [6] Company Announcements - Zoomlion plans to acquire equity in Beijing Leasing through public bidding [6] - Xinjie Electric plans to establish an industrial investment partnership [6] Market Performance - From May 14 to May 20, 2025, the CSI 300 index rose by 0.05%, while the machinery equipment sector fell by 0.86%, underperforming the index by 0.91 percentage points [6] - As of May 20, 2025, the price-to-earnings ratio for the machinery equipment sector was 26.91 times, with a valuation premium of 125.92% over the CSI 300 [6] Future Outlook - The demand for construction machinery is expected to improve due to ongoing construction projects and favorable weather conditions [6] - The production roadmap for Tesla's humanoid robots is becoming clearer, which may drive rapid development in the industry [7] - The industry maintains a "positive" rating, with recommendations to increase holdings in companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, and others [6][7]