中国材料行业最新动态

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as Attractive [3] Core Insights - The report indicates a preference for gold, steel, and cement in the near term, with expectations for more opportunities in metals during the second half of the year [6][3] Summary by Sections Commodities Forecasts - Morgan Stanley's forecasts for various commodities show differences from consensus estimates, with notable projections for: - Aluminium: $2,631 per ton vs. consensus $2,602 (1% higher) for CY2025 [9] - Copper: $9,234 per ton vs. consensus $9,397 (2% lower) for CY2025 [9] - Gold: $3,289 per ounce vs. consensus $2,859 (15% higher) for CY2025 [9] Steel Industry - Key drivers for steel demand in China for 2025 include: - Machinery (30%) - Infrastructure (17%) - Residential property (14%) [15] - The steel consumption index shows fluctuations, with a YoY change indicating a decline in apparent consumption [16] Copper Industry - Major demand drivers for copper in 2025 are: - Power (47%) - White goods (15%) - Auto (10%) [19] - The copper consumption index reflects a positive trend in demand, with significant contributions from grid investments [21] Aluminum Industry - The aluminum demand drivers for 2025 include: - Property (22%) - Passenger vehicles (18%) - Power (20%) [23] - The aluminum consumption index indicates a steady increase in demand, particularly from the property sector [25] Infrastructure Spending - Infrastructure spending has shown a 10.8% YoY increase in the first four months of 2025, with significant contributions from utility and transportation sectors [29] - The report highlights that infrastructure investments are partially offsetting the slowdown in property new starts [43] Market Trends - Weekly shipments of cement and rebar in China indicate a steady demand, with a focus on East China [44][45] - Construction new orders are closely monitored, showing trends that correlate with steel and cement demand [49][53]