半导体生产设备行业展望

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for Semiconductor Production Equipment is Attractive [2]. Core Insights - The semiconductor manufacturing equipment market is expected to experience growth driven by advancements in generative AI and increased demand for high-performance computing [117]. - The report highlights a shift in capital expenditure trends, with significant investments anticipated in both front-end and back-end processes, particularly in response to evolving technology needs [117]. - The report notes that while there are uncertainties regarding US tariffs and restrictions on China, the overall growth potential of the semiconductor manufacturing equipment market remains strong [117]. Market Environment - The WFE (Wafer Fabrication Equipment) market is projected to see low-single digit negative growth in 2025, with specific segments like NAND and foundry showing varied growth rates [19][22]. - Sales exposure to China is expected to decline, with significant implications for companies like Kokusai Electric, SCREEN Holdings, and Tokyo Electron, whose sales to China as a percentage of total sales are forecasted to decrease [22][21]. - The demand for advanced packaging technologies, such as CoWoS (Chip on Wafer on Substrate), is anticipated to increase, driven by the need for high-performance computing solutions [38][117]. Technology Trends - The concept of chipletization is gaining traction, allowing for reduced chip area and increased yields, which is crucial for optimizing semiconductor production [15]. - The report discusses the impact of the CHIPS Act, which is expected to significantly boost the back-end equipment market, growing at twice the rate of the front-end equipment market [39][40]. - Innovations in packaging technologies, such as PLP (Panel Level Package) and HBF (High Bandwidth Memory), are highlighted as promising developments that could enhance production efficiency [99][101]. Future Outlook - The semiconductor production equipment market is poised for transformation, with generative AI driving new demands and opportunities for innovation [117]. - The report emphasizes the importance of sustainability in investment, particularly in the context of AI and semiconductor demand, as companies like Microsoft plan to increase their capital expenditures significantly [36][86]. - The anticipated growth in mobile HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) capacity for edge AI devices is projected to ramp up significantly from 2025 onwards, indicating a robust market for related production equipment [81][84].