卡车停靠站/卡车装载系数指数就此开始……

Investment Rating - Industry View: In-Line [6] Core Insights - The TLFI (Truck Load Freight Index) has shown a significant positive inflection, marking the fourth consecutive outperformance driven primarily by demand strength, with the supply component also contributing [3][4] - The demand component increased approximately 1,490 basis points compared to its average decrease of around 50 basis points, while the supply component decreased about 430 basis points compared to its average increase of approximately 170 basis points [8] - The MS TLQURE model predicts truck rates to rise to $1.74 in six months and $1.81 in twelve months, with bull and bear case predictions of $2.17 and $1.39 in six months, respectively [2][26] Summary by Sections TLFI Performance - The TLFI has outperformed typical seasonality, with the largest gap above long-term averages observed in 2025 [3] - The Reefer index has also outperformed, while the Flatbed index decreased sequentially but reversed to outperform for the first time in three updates [3][8] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Demand strength is the primary driver of the recent outperformance, with a notable increase in spot rates [3] - The interim China tariff rollback is seen as an opportunity for companies to build inventory, contributing to the current demand surge [3] Market Predictions - The MS TLQURE model forecasts an increase in spot rates over the next six and twelve months, indicating a positive outlook for the trucking industry [2][26] - The sentiment survey indicates a mixed outlook, with 10% of respondents viewing demand as strong, 59% neutral, and 31% weak [138]