Dicker Data Ltd：迪克尔数据有限公司（DDR）：年初至今盈利能力较弱+建设性展望强化下半年趋势-20250522

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Dicker Data Ltd is Overweight (OW) with a price target of A$10.30, indicating a potential upside of 20% from the current price of A$8.60 [2][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a constructive outlook for the second half of the year, despite a modest shortfall in year-to-date profitability. The financial results are seen as reinforcing a skew towards stronger performance in the latter half of the year [1][4]. - Revenue growth is projected to be strong at 17%, which is an acceleration compared to the approximately 10% growth noted in previous calls. However, gross profit growth is only at 5%, indicating potential challenges in margin expansion [7]. - The report notes that the company is likely to face headwinds from a higher mix of lower-margin enterprise products and challenges in product mix, particularly with PCs and infrastructure hardware [7][8]. Financial Metrics Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 2024, the estimated revenue is A$3,363 million, with projected growth to A$4,003 million by December 2027. EBITDA is expected to grow from A$150 million in 2024 to A$188 million in 2027 [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from A$0.45 in 2024 to A$0.57 in 2027, reflecting a positive trend in profitability [4]. - The report indicates a P/E ratio decreasing from 18.6 in 2025 to 15.0 in 2027, suggesting improving valuation metrics over time [4]. Valuation Methodology - The base case valuation is derived from an average of P/E and DCF methodologies, with a calculated price target of A$10.30 based on a P/E relative of 20x for CY25e [8][9]. - The DCF analysis uses a WACC of 9.2% and a terminal growth rate of 3.5%, supporting the valuation outlook [9].