Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The sentiment in the pig industry is weak, and there may be a phased inventory reduction. The current situation shows that the price spreads between fat pigs in the north and south are inverted, the sale of group piglets has decreased, and the recent pressure of fat pig sales initially confirms inventory accumulation. The official number of piglets confirms the inventory, and the market expectation has weakened. There is a possibility of phased weight reduction due to trade circulation issues, and the positive spread structure may switch. The January contract is affected by liquidity, and although it is a peak - season contract before the Spring Festival, the increase in positions is limited, causing the far - month spread to deviate from the seasonal reasonable spread at present. Wait for the opportunity of liquidity shift, and continuously layout the 11 - 1 reverse spread in the medium - and long - term, paying attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Price: The Henan spot price is 14,600 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Sichuan spot price is 14,250 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - year; the Guangdong spot price is 15,290 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton year - on - year. The futures prices of pig2507, pig2509, and pig2511 are 13,285 yuan/ton, 13,650 yuan/ton, and 13,335 yuan/ton respectively, down 70 yuan/ton, 40 yuan/ton, and 25 yuan/ton year - on - year [1] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of pig2507 is 5,518 lots, an increase of 92 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 27,386 lots, an increase of 356 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of pig2509 is 15,772 lots, an increase of 1,459 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 78,562 lots, a decrease of 118 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of pig2511 is 2,948 lots, a decrease of 228 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 32,576 lots, an increase of 397 lots from the previous day [1] - Price Spread: The basis of pig2507, pig2509, and pig2511 are 1,315 yuan/ton, 950 yuan/ton, and 1,265 yuan/ton respectively, down 80 yuan/ton, 110 yuan/ton, and 125 yuan/ton year - on - year. The 7 - 9 spread of pigs is - 365 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton year - on - year, and the 9 - 11 spread is 315 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton year - on - year [1] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral market sentiment. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish), with classifications including weak, weak - biased, neutral, strong - biased, and strong [2] 3.3 Market Logic - The current situation shows that the price spreads between fat pigs in the north and south are inverted, the sale of group piglets has decreased, and the recent pressure of fat pig sales initially confirms inventory accumulation. The official number of piglets confirms the inventory, and the market expectation has weakened. There is a possibility of phased weight reduction due to trade circulation issues, and the positive spread structure may switch. The January contract is affected by liquidity, and although it is a peak - season contract before the Spring Festival, the increase in positions is limited, causing the far - month spread to deviate from the seasonal reasonable spread at present. Wait for the opportunity of liquidity shift, and continuously layout the 11 - 1 reverse spread in the medium - and long - term, paying attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3]
生猪：情绪偏弱，或阶段性去库
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-05-22 01:25