能源化工日报-20250522

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical products including PVC, caustic soda, rubber, urea, methanol, and plastic. It provides insights into their price trends, supply - demand situations, and future outlooks. Each product has unique factors influencing its market, and the report offers specific trading suggestions and areas of focus for each [2][3][5][6]. 3. Summary by Product PVC - On May 21, the PVC main 09 contract closed at 4,969 yuan/ton (+20), with different market prices and a main - contract basis of - 139 yuan/ton (+30). The macro sentiment has warmed up after the China - US trade talks, and the inventory is high but slightly lower than last year. In the short - term, the basis provides some support, but in the long - term, demand is weak due to the real estate sector and exports are restricted. The supply has new investment plans, resulting in a loose supply - demand pattern. The price is mainly driven by the macro environment, and the expected rebound space is limited [2]. Caustic Soda - On May 21, the caustic soda main SH09 contract closed at 2,512 yuan/ton (-15). Influenced by factors like the price increase by Weiqiao and the rise in alumina prices, the price has fluctuated upwards. The supply is increasing as the production - cut devices resume, and the inventory is high with slow destocking. The demand is affected by tariffs, and the non - aluminum industry is entering the off - season. In the short - term, the market is volatile, and in the medium - term, it is advisable to short the 09 contract [3]. Rubber - On May 21, the rubber price was slightly affected by the storage - purchase information but still faced fundamental pressure. In the short - term, the supply of latex is slow, and the raw material price is high, providing some support to the price. However, the inventory is increasing slightly, the future supply is expected to rise, and the downstream demand is weak, resulting in limited upward momentum [4][5]. Urea - The urea 2509 contract rose 0.22% to close at 1,855 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell. The supply is stable, with the开工 rate at 87.5%. The cost of anthracite is stable or slightly decreasing. The demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate, with support at 1830 - 1850 and resistance at 1930 - 1950 [6]. Methanol - The methanol 2509 contract rose 0.22% to close at 2,270 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Taicang increased. The supply is relatively abundant, and the cost of coal - based methanol has decreased slightly. The demand is weak, with the olefin industry's start - up rate expected to decline. The inventory in the sample enterprises increased, while the port inventory decreased. The price is expected to oscillate between 2200 - 2350 [7][8]. Plastic - On May 21, the plastic 2509 contract fell 0.29% to close at 7,221 yuan/ton. The supply decreased due to increased maintenance losses this week. The demand is mixed, with an increase in exports but a decline in the agricultural film industry. The inventory pressure has been slightly relieved. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term, with a reference range of 6950 - 7350, and attention should be paid to the 7200 support level [9].