2025年4月经济数据点评：政策发力，经济稳增向好

Report Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View - In April 2025, China's economy showed strong resilience amidst intensified external shocks, with major economic indicators featuring "warm domestic demand, stable production, and optimized structure." Despite challenges such as insufficient internal momentum and pressured corporate profits, the domestic economy is expected to stabilize internally in 2025, with consumer spending steadily recovering, the real - estate market slowly stabilizing, and the stock market gradually rising. The report is bearish on interest - rate bonds and suggests paying attention to credit bonds, as well as opportunities in stocks, convertible bonds, and Hong Kong financial stocks [3][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Consumption and Investment Growth, and Export Increase in April - Consumption: In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3.7 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.1% and a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. Upgraded and green consumption were the core drivers, and the service retail sales from January to April increased by 5.1% year - on - year [3][7]. - Investment: From January to April, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 14.7 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.0%, with a slightly slower growth rate. Infrastructure investment grew by 5.8% year - on - year, manufacturing investment by 8.8%, and real - estate investment decreased by 10.3%. However, the real - estate market showed signs of marginal improvement [3][12][21]. - Export: In April, the export value in RMB terms increased by 9.3% year - on - year, and the cumulative export value in the first four months increased by 7.5%. Diversified markets, such as exports to ASEAN and the EU, effectively offset the decline in exports to the US [3][22]. 2. Stable Growth on the Production Side - Industrial Production: In April, the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 6.1% year - on - year. The "dual engines" of equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing were prominent, and the green and intelligent transformation was accelerating [28][31]. - Service Industry: In April, the service production index increased by 6.0% year - on - year, with modern services leading the growth, and the service business activity index remained in the expansion range [34]. 3. Price Growth Needs Repair - CPI: In April, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year but increased by 0.1% month - on - month. The core CPI remained stable at 0.5%, indicating a moderate recovery in domestic consumption demand [34][36]. - PPI: In April, the PPI decreased by 2.7% year - on - year, with a larger decline than the previous month. However, there were structural highlights in high - end manufacturing [39]. 4. Investment Suggestions - The report is bearish on interest - rate bonds due to factors such as the significant reduction of US tariffs on China and the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. If tariffs are further reduced to the beginning - of - year level, ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds may experience a 20BP adjustment. It is recommended to pay attention to 5 - year credit bonds with a yield of over 2% and also look at opportunities in stocks, convertible bonds, and Hong Kong financial stocks [3][44].