Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish outlook on the four major stock indices in the long - term, suggesting investors to look past short - term fluctuations. The specific ratings for stock index futures are: IH (long), IF (long), IM (slightly long), IC (slightly long) [1][2] Core View - The decline in deposit rates below 1% continues to be positive for the market. The reduction of deposit rates by the six major banks is expected to drive household savings and insurance funds into the stock market. The market style is expected to shift towards the cyclical value style represented by the Shanghai 50 Index. The global re - allocation of financial assets will prompt overseas institutional funds to pour into the A - share market [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday, the value - cycle indices of the two markets strengthened. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.17 trillion yuan, with little change. The Shanghai 50 Index closed at 2728 points, up 11 points or 0.43%; the CSI 300 Index closed at 3916 points, up 18 points or 0.47%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 5757 points, up 10 points or 0.18%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 6132 points, down 13 points or - 0.23%. Among industry and theme ETFs, gold stock ETFs, non - ferrous 50 ETFs, coal ETFs, battery ETFs, and new energy vehicle ETFs led the gains, while semiconductor leading ETFs, machine tool ETFs, and chip ETFs led the losses. Among the sector indices of the two markets, precious metals, batteries, commercial vehicles, coal mining, and industrial metals indices led the gains, while PEEK materials, general equipment, aquatic products, industrial mother machines, and industrial software indices led the losses. The futures settlement funds of the CSI 1000, CSI 300, and Shanghai 50 indices had net outflows of 900 million, 500 million, and 100 million yuan respectively [1] Important Information - The central bank will support key areas such as technological innovation, consumption, private small and micro - enterprises, and foreign trade stability, and improve the quality and efficiency of financial support for the real economy [1] - On May 20, China and ASEAN announced the full completion of the negotiation of the China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 [1] - Due to the rush - out effect in the sprint window period, shipping companies have raised prices. The quotation for 40 - foot containers (FEU) on the Shanghai - US West Line in mid - June has reached $9100, more than three times the average price of about $2250 at the beginning of May [1] - Dalio said that inappropriate interest - rate cuts would have a negative impact on the bond market, leading to higher long - term interest rates, a weaker US dollar, and a rising gold price [1] - The annual inflation rate in the UK in April reached 3.5%, higher than analysts' expectations [1] - The Japanese bond market had no bids for the second consecutive day, and the yields of 30 - year and 40 - year Japanese government bonds reached record highs, with the 20 - year government bond yield reaching 2.57%, the highest since October 2000 [1] - The St. Louis Fed President pointed out that the Fed needs to prevent the rise of inflation expectations [1] - COT data shows that there has been large - scale short - selling in the US stock market, reaching $11.1 billion, with hedge funds as the main short - sellers. The cumulative short - selling amount of hedge funds in the last three COT reports reached $25 billion, the largest in at least a decade [2] - The open - interest data of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) confirms that a large number of positions are betting that the 10 - year Treasury yield will rise to 5% in the coming weeks [2] - Institutions predict that the tax - cut bill will increase public debt by at least $3.3 trillion by the end of 2034, raising the debt - to - GDP ratio from the current 100% to a record 125% [2] - Multiple US officials said that Israel is preparing to attack Iran's nuclear facilities, which may trigger a wider regional conflict in the Middle East [2] Market Logic - On Wednesday, the value - related indices of the two markets continued to strengthen, and the reduction of deposit rates was still positive for the market. The six major banks lowered RMB deposit rates. The three - month, six - month, one - year, and two - year fixed - deposit rates were all cut by 15 basis points to 0.65%, 0.85%, 0.95%, and 1.05% respectively; the three - year and five - year rates were cut by 25 basis points to 1.25% and 1.3% respectively. The one - year deposit rate falling below 1% is expected to drive household savings and insurance funds into the stock market, and free - cash - flow ETFs strengthened collectively [1][2] Future Outlook - The value - related indices of the two markets continued to strengthen on Wednesday, and the reduction of deposit rates continued to be positive for the market. In 2024, A - share listed companies paid a total of 2.4 trillion yuan in dividends and repurchased shares worth 147.6 billion yuan, both hitting record highs, and the dividend yield of the CSI 300 Index was close to 3.6%. The one - year deposit rate cut to 0.95% is expected to accelerate the transfer of household savings and insurance funds to the stock market. Free - cash - flow ETFs and dividend - based ETFs are expected to benefit the most. The global re - allocation of financial assets will drive overseas institutional funds to pour into the A - share market. The market is expected to shift to the cyclical value style represented by the Shanghai 50 Index. The four major indices are bullish in the long - term, and short - term fluctuations should be ignored [2] Trading Strategy - For stock index futures directional trading: With the one - year deposit rate falling below 1%, household savings and insurance funds are expected to flow into the stock market. The market style is expected to shift to the cyclical value style represented by the Shanghai 50 Index. The four major stock indices are bullish in the long - term, and short - term fluctuations should be ignored [2] - For stock index option trading: The market is in a consolidation phase to repair technical indicators. It is recommended to suspend far - month deep - out - of - the - money call options [2]
格林大华期货早盘提示-20250522
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2025-05-22 01:38