Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the sugar industry is "shockingly bullish" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trend strength of sugar is 1, indicating a relatively strong upward trend [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The raw sugar price is 17.74 cents per pound, with a year-on-year increase of 0.33; the mainstream spot price is 6,150 yuan per ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 10; the futures main contract price is 5,863 yuan per ton, with a year-on-year increase of 14 [1] - The 91 spread is 135 yuan per ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 4; the 15 spread is 40 yuan per ton, with a year-on-year increase of 1; the mainstream spot basis is 287 yuan per ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 24 [1] Macro and Industry News - High-frequency information shows that Brazil's sugarcane crushing progress is slower year-on-year; the USDA expects Brazil's sugar production to increase by 2% in the 25/26 season; Brazil exported 1.55 million tons of sugar in April, a year-on-year decrease of 18% [1] - As of the end of April, India produced 25.69 million tons of sugar in the 24/25 season; China's imports of regular sugar, syrup, and premixes from January to April decreased significantly [1] Domestic Market - The CAOC expects China's sugar production to be 11.15 million tons, consumption to be 15.8 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons in the 24/25 season; in the 25/26 season, production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons, and imports 5 million tons [2] - As of the end of April, China produced 11.11 million tons of sugar in the 24/25 season, a year-on-year increase of 1.15 million tons; cumulative sales reached 7.24 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5 million tons, and the cumulative sales rate was 65.2% [2] - China imported 280,000 tons of sugar from January to April, a year-on-year decrease of 970,000 tons [2] International Market - The ISO expects a global sugar supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 season (previously 4.88 million tons) [2] - As of May 1, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central-southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 season decreased by 33 percentage points year-on-year; cumulative sugar production was 1.58 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1 million tons; the cumulative MIX decreased by 1.71 percentage points year-on-year [2] - As of May 15, India produced 25.74 million tons of sugar in the 24/25 season, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8 million tons [2] - As of April 9, Thailand produced 10.05 million tons of sugar in the 24/25 season, a year-on-year increase of 1.31 million tons [2]
白糖:震荡偏强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-05-22 01:33