国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20250522

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Report Industry Investment Ratings: Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views - Nickel: Nickel ore contradictions provide a bottom support, while the economics of conversion may limit the upside valuation [2][4] - Stainless Steel: The cost bottom space is clear, but there is a lack of substantial drivers for upward movement [2][4] - Lithium Carbonate: Lithium salt plant production cuts have not affected the resource end, and the upside remains under pressure [2][10] - Industrial Silicon: The weak pattern persists [2][13] - Polysilicon: There is a build - up of warehouse receipts, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [2][13] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 123,280, with a decrease of 1,950 compared to T - 5. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,870, down 210 from T - 5. Other data such as trading volume, spot prices, and spreads also showed various changes [4] - Macro and Industry News: Indonesia adjusted the resource tax rates for nickel - related products; Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial production stage; a nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production; the Philippines may ban nickel ore exports [4][5][7] Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the 2507 contract was 61,100, down 4,100 from T - 5. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, and various price differentials and raw material prices [10] - Macro and Industry News: Ford allowed Nissan to use part of the capacity of its battery factory; a lithium salt enterprise in Jiangxi planned to shut down a plant for maintenance, affecting monthly production by about 1,500 tons [12] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: The Si2507 closing price was 7,865, down 625 from T - 5. The PS2507 closing price was 35,860, down 2,560 from T - 5. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, price differentials, inventory, and raw material costs [13] - Macro and Industry News: At the 2024 annual general meeting of Tongwei Co., Ltd., the company expressed confidence in the development of the photovoltaic industry [13][15] Trend Intensity - Nickel: Trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [9] - Stainless Steel: Trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [9] - Lithium Carbonate: Trend intensity is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [12] - Industrial Silicon: Trend intensity is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [15] - Polysilicon: Trend intensity is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [15]