Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Steel (Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil): The Sino - US trade negotiation results briefly boosted market confidence, and policy - side benefits have basically materialized. The real estate market in core cities has stabilized, while that in lower - tier cities is still bottoming out. Steel output has risen, inventories have declined, and apparent demand has rebounded. The market is shifting from strong reality to weak reality, and weak expectations may not have changed substantially. Technically, the short - term rally last week was followed by a downward trend this week, and the medium - term downward trend has entered a low - level oscillation phase [2]. - Iron Ore: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, and steel billet exports are growing rapidly. Iron ore demand may be further suppressed if a production - restriction policy is introduced. The global supply of iron ore is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. Port inventories are decreasing at a slower pace, and the high proportion of trade ore inventories exerts pressure on futures prices. Technically, the price may enter an oscillation phase after a short - term rebound [5]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - Market Conditions: The Sino - US trade negotiation results briefly boosted confidence, and policy - side benefits fully materialized. The real estate market in core cities stabilized, while that in lower - tier cities is still bottoming out, with new construction areas dropping significantly and completion and construction areas still showing large year - on - year declines [2]. - Supply and Demand: Last week, steel output increased, factory inventories decreased, social inventories continued to decline, total inventories dropped, and apparent demand rebounded. Steel mills believe the industry needs to cut production, but there is no incentive for voluntary production cuts [2]. - Technical Analysis: After a short - term sharp rebound last week, prices faced downward pressure this week, and the medium - term downward trend has entered a low - level oscillation phase [2]. - Operation Suggestion: Wait and see. Wait patiently for the price to complete bottom - building and then go long at low prices [2]. - Data: - Prices: The closing prices of thread steel and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices mostly declined compared to last week. For example, the closing price of the thread steel futures main contract was 3061 yuan/ton, down 2.11% from last week [3]. - Production: The output of national building material steel mills' thread steel was 226.53 million tons, up 1.34% from last week, while hot - rolled coil output was 311.98 million tons, down 2.62% [3]. - Inventory: Five major varieties of social inventories were 993.67 million tons, down 3.81% from last week. Thread social inventories were 434.88 million tons, down 6.55% [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - Market Conditions: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, and steel billet exports are growing rapidly. The impact of the US tariff increase on steel exports has not yet emerged. Last week, the iron - water output of 247 steel mills exceeded 244.8 million tons, a decrease of 0.9 million tons from the previous week [5]. - Supply and Demand: If a production - restriction policy is introduced, it will further suppress iron ore demand. The global supply of iron ore is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. Port inventories are decreasing at a slower pace, and the high proportion of trade ore inventories exerts pressure on futures prices [5]. - Technical Analysis: The price has fallen to near the long - term trend line, and a short - term rebound may indicate the end of the medium - term downward trend and the entry into an oscillation phase [5]. - Operation Suggestion: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude [5]. - Data: - Prices: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore futures main contract was 728.5 yuan/dry ton, up 0.48% from the previous day and down 1.15% from last week [5]. - Supply: Australian iron ore shipments were 1648.9 million tons, up 2.94% from last week, and Brazilian shipments were 751.1 million tons, up 37.04% [5]. - Inventory: Port inventories totaled 14166.09 million tons, down 0.51% from last week, and port trade ore inventories were 9718.75 million tons, down 0.03% [5]. 3.3 Industry News As market sentiment faded, steel prices first rose and then fell. The price of Tangshan steel billet decreased by 50 yuan to 2930 yuan/ton. Steel mills' coke price reduction of 50 yuan was implemented. Iron ore spot prices rebounded. The average iron - water cost of Tangshan's mainstream sample steel mills decreased by 4 yuan to 2148 yuan/ton, and the average steel billet cost decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 2898 yuan/ton. The average profit of billet - making steel mills decreased by 46 yuan to 32 yuan/ton, the lowest in two months [7].
山金期货黑色板块日报-20250522
Shan Jin Qi Huo·2025-05-22 01:29