Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Range-bound oscillation [1] - Alumina: Bullish trend [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April 2025, China's exports of aluminum and its products reached 898,900 tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.93%. The cumulative exports in the first four months were 3.335 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 1.55%. The export rush of products such as aluminum sheets, strips, and profiles continued. Meanwhile, the import of domestic aluminum raw materials was approaching the historical high, and the monthly import volume of primary aluminum hit a new record [1][3]. - The trend strength of aluminum is 0, and that of alumina is 1 [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Electrolytic Aluminum - The closing price of the main Shanghai aluminum futures contract was 20,190 yuan, with a change of 115 yuan compared to the previous trading day, -85 yuan compared to a week ago, 232 yuan compared to a month ago, and -385 yuan compared to three months ago. The closing price of the night session was 20,135 yuan [1]. - The closing price of LME aluminum 3M was 2,476 dollars, down 6 dollars from the previous trading day, -47 dollars from a week ago, 87 dollars from a month ago, and -151 dollars from three months ago [1]. - The trading volume of the main Shanghai aluminum futures contract was 116,735 lots, an increase of 10,293 lots from the previous trading day, a decrease of 44,215 lots from a week ago, a decrease of 23,996 lots from a month ago, and an increase of 20,597 lots from three months ago. The open interest was 200,224 lots, an increase of 458 lots from the previous trading day, an increase of 48,420 lots from a week ago, a decrease of 20,702 lots from a month ago, and an increase of 40,920 lots from three months ago [1]. - The trading volume of LME aluminum 3M was 14,231 lots, a decrease of 3,236 lots from the previous trading day, a decrease of 3,836 lots from a week ago, an increase of 2,858 lots from a month ago, and a decrease of 4,931 lots from three months ago [1]. - The proportion of LME cancelled warrants was 17.02%, down 0.43% from the previous trading day, -20.41% from a week ago, -25.33% from a month ago, and -37.65% from three months ago [1]. - The LME aluminum cash - 3M spread was -1.69 dollars, down 3.11 dollars from the previous trading day, -2.70 dollars from a week ago, an increase of 35.31 dollars from a month ago, and -10.47 dollars from three months ago [1]. - The spread between the near - month contract and the first continuous contract was 40 yuan, down 10 yuan from the previous trading day, an increase of 25 yuan from a week ago, a decrease of 30 yuan from a month ago, and an increase of 70 yuan from three months ago [1]. - The cost of the near - month long and first continuous short inter - period arbitrage was 58.22 yuan, an increase of 1.39 yuan from the previous trading day, a decrease of 3.01 yuan from a week ago, an increase of 4.86 yuan from a month ago, and a decrease of 8.77 yuan from three months ago [1]. Alumina - The closing price of the main Shanghai alumina futures contract was 3,246 yuan, an increase of 112 yuan from the previous trading day, an increase of 301 yuan from a week ago, an increase of 431 yuan from a month ago, and a decrease of 141 yuan from three months ago. The closing price of the night session was 3,243 yuan [1]. - The trading volume of the main Shanghai alumina futures contract was 2,483,203 lots, an increase of 538,141 lots from the previous trading day, an increase of 1,400,037 lots from a week ago, an increase of 2,287,625 lots from a month ago, and an increase of 2,350,090 lots from three months ago. The open interest was 357,007 lots, an increase of 14,649 lots from the previous trading day, an increase of 45,850 lots from a week ago, an increase of 243,316 lots from a month ago, and an increase of 193,984 lots from three months ago [1]. - The spread between the near - month contract and the first continuous contract was -11 yuan, down 7 yuan from the previous trading day, an increase of 17 yuan from a week ago, a decrease of 9 yuan from a month ago, and an increase of 9 yuan from three months ago [1]. - The cost of the near - month long and first continuous short inter - period arbitrage was 25.25 yuan, an increase of 1.03 yuan from the previous trading day, a decrease of 1.30 yuan from a week ago, an increase of 1.98 yuan from a month ago, and a decrease of 1.29 yuan from three months ago [1]. Spot Market Electrolytic Aluminum - The spot premium was 70 yuan, unchanged from the previous trading day, an increase of 50 yuan from a week ago, an increase of 70 yuan from a month ago, and an increase of 100 yuan from three months ago [1]. - The Shanghai bonded area premium was 170 dollars, unchanged from the previous trading day, unchanged from a week ago, an increase of 5 dollars from a month ago, and a decrease of 20 dollars from three months ago [1]. - The EU Rotterdam aluminum ingot premium (MB) was 197.5 dollars, unchanged from the previous trading day, unchanged from a week ago, unchanged from a month ago, and a decrease of 87.5 dollars from three months ago [1]. - The market price of pre - baked anodes was 5,723 yuan, unchanged from the previous trading day, unchanged from a week ago, a decrease of 270 yuan from a month ago, and an increase of 943 yuan from three months ago [1]. - The processing fee for Foshan aluminum rods was 330 yuan, down 20 yuan from the previous trading day, down 20 yuan from a week ago, down 20 yuan from a month ago, and an increase of 130 yuan from three months ago [1]. - The processing fee for Shandong 1A60 aluminum rods was unchanged from the previous trading day, a week ago, a month ago, and an increase of 250 yuan from three months ago [1]. - The price difference between refined and scrap aluminum ingots was 210 yuan, an increase of 100 yuan from the previous trading day, an increase of 100 yuan from a week ago, an increase of 85 yuan from a month ago, and a decrease of 166 yuan from three months ago [1]. - The profit and loss of electrolytic aluminum enterprises was 3,444.88 yuan, an increase of 3.30 yuan from the previous trading day, a decrease of 244.55 yuan from a week ago, an increase of 314.21 yuan from a month ago, and an increase of 60.55 yuan from three months ago [1]. - The profit and loss of aluminum spot imports was -1,177.83 yuan, a decrease of 205.09 yuan from the previous trading day, an increase of 306.40 yuan from a week ago, a decrease of 284.16 yuan from a month ago, and an increase of 1,418.70 yuan from three months ago [1]. - The profit and loss of aluminum 3M imports was -1,187.55 yuan, a decrease of 220.76 yuan from the previous trading day, an increase of 234.84 yuan from a week ago, a decrease of 20.50 yuan from a month ago, and an increase of 1,226.44 yuan from three months ago [1]. - The profit and loss of aluminum sheet and coil exports was 1,523.59 yuan, an increase of 322.97 yuan from the previous trading day, a decrease of 324.74 yuan from a week ago, an increase of 398.83 yuan from a month ago, and a decrease of 1,403.58 yuan from three months ago [1]. - The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 587,000 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day, a decrease of 21,000 tons from a week ago, a decrease of 129,000 tons from a month ago, and a decrease of 144,000 tons from three months ago [1]. - The aluminum ingot warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 59,500 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons from the previous trading day, a decrease of 2,900 tons from a week ago, a decrease of 40,600 tons from a month ago, and a decrease of 12,900 tons from three months ago [1]. - The LME aluminum ingot inventory was 388,900 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day, a decrease of 10,400 tons from a week ago, a decrease of 48,100 tons from a month ago, and a decrease of 177,200 tons from three months ago [1]. Alumina - The average domestic alumina price was 3,121 yuan, an increase of 50 yuan from the previous trading day, an increase of 170 yuan from a week ago, an increase of 227 yuan from a month ago, and a decrease of 360 yuan from three months ago [1]. - The CIF price of alumina at Lianyungang was 393 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, an increase of 8 dollars/ton from a week ago, an increase of 37 dollars/ton from a month ago, and a decrease of 164 dollars/ton from three months ago. In yuan/ton, it was 3,250 yuan, unchanged from the previous trading day, an increase of 200 yuan from a week ago, an increase of 275 yuan from a month ago, and a decrease of 1,200 yuan from three months ago [1]. - The FOB price of Australian alumina was 370 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, an increase of 11 dollars/ton from a week ago, an increase of 22 dollars/ton from a month ago, and a decrease of 168 dollars/ton from three months ago [1]. - The profit and loss of Shanxi alumina enterprises was 200 yuan, unchanged from the previous trading day, an increase of 207 yuan from a week ago, an increase of 318 yuan from a month ago, and a decrease of 151 yuan from three months ago [1]. Bauxite - The price of Australian imported bauxite (Al: 48 - 50%, Si: 8 - 10%) was 70 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, a week ago, a decrease of 16 dollars/ton from a month ago, and a decrease of 27 dollars/ton from three months ago [1]. - The price of Indonesian imported bauxite (Al: 45 - 47%, Si: 4 - 6%) was unchanged from the previous trading day, a week ago, a month ago, and three months ago [1]. - The price of Guinean imported bauxite (Al: 43 - 45%, Si: 2 - 3%) was 72 dollars/ton, an increase of 1 dollar/ton from the previous trading day, an increase of 2 dollars/ton from a week ago, a decrease of 18 dollars/ton from a month ago, and a decrease of 33 dollars/ton from three months ago [1]. - The price of Yangquan bauxite (tax - included spot mine price, AI:Si = 4.5) was 530 yuan, unchanged from the previous trading day, a week ago, a decrease of 50 yuan from a month ago, and a decrease of 110 yuan from three months ago [1]. Caustic Soda - The price of Shaanxi ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda (32% converted to 100%) was 2,610 yuan, unchanged from the previous trading day, a week ago, a decrease of 390 yuan from a month ago, and unchanged from three months ago [1].
铝：区间震荡，氧化铝，偏强运行
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-05-22 01:56