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沪铜日评:国内铜冶炼厂5月检修产能或环增,国内电解铜社会库存量环比增加-20250522
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-05-22 02:37

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The easing of mutual tariffs between China and the US leads to expectations of rushed exports, but the traditional consumption off - season is approaching. The increase in China's electrolytic copper social inventory may cause the furnace copper price to fluctuate widely. It is recommended that investors wait and see, and pay attention to the support and pressure levels of furnace copper, London copper, and US copper [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - On May 21, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 78,100 yuan, up 560 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 71,129 lots; the open interest was 163,320 lots, down 2,768 lots; the inventory was 41,218 tons, down 4,520 tons. The average price of SMN 1 electrolytic copper was 78,460 yuan, up 120 yuan [2] - The basis of Shanghai copper and spot premiums and discounts showed different changes, with the furnace copper basis down 440 yuan to 360 yuan, and spot premiums and discounts in different regions also changing [2] - The price difference between near - month and far - month contracts of Shanghai copper decreased to varying degrees, with the difference between near - month and continuous - first contracts down 60 yuan to 290 yuan [2] - The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price on May 20, 2025 was 9,554.5 dollars, and relevant inventory and price difference data also showed certain changes [2] - On May 21, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures was 4.6575 dollars, down 0.01 dollars from the previous day, and the total inventory was 173,023 tons, up 2,643 tons [2] Industry News - In April 2025, China's copper enameled wire export volume was 13,217.28 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.28% and a month - on - month increase of 5.67%. From January to April, the cumulative export volume was 45,256.14 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 27% [2] - On May 21, Central Asia Metals (CAML) announced a $119 million acquisition of Australian Mer World Resources (MR.), with the project expected to produce 30,000 tons of copper equivalent annually and start production around 2026 [2] - Ivanhoe Mines suspended operations at the Kaooor - Kakula copper mine due to earthquake activity on May 10, and operations may resume soon as seismic activity has significantly decreased [2] - Global copper mining giant Antofagasta initiated mid - year negotiations with Chinese and Japanese smelters. Smelters may demand a "0 - dollar" processing fee (TC/RC) in the second half of 2025, a 100% increase from the 2024 benchmark price [2] Production and Supply - The expansion project of the copper oxide ore at ACC Metals' Vədi.tepe multi - metal mine will start in the first quarter of 2026, with an initial annual output of 25,000 tons [3] - Freeport - McMoRan Indonesia was allowed to export 1.27 million tons of copper concentrate within 6 months but will be subject to higher export taxes [3] - The second - phase 150,000 - ton production capacity of the copper mine in Ecuador under Jiangxi Copper may be put into production in the second half of 2025 [3] - The second - phase 200,000 - ton/day construction project of Julong Copper Mine may be put into production by the end of 2026 [3] - The maintenance capacity of domestic smelters in May may increase month - on - month, which may lead to a decrease in the production and import of domestic crude copper in June [3] - The Kaooor - Kakula copper smelter may be completed and put into production in June 2025, with an annual output of 600,000 tons of anode copper [3] - The new anode copper production capacity of Yimen Copper Mine increased from 100,000 to 150,000 tons and was successfully put into production on April 12 [3] - The second - phase 150,000 - ton cathode copper project of Jiangxi Copper Baoyuan will start construction in Guizhou and reach a capacity of 260,000 tons after completion [3] - The second - phase 200,000 - ton project of Jinchuan Group's 400,000 - ton intelligent electrolytic copper project produced the first batch of high - purity cathode copper in March [3] Market Inventory - China's bonded - area electrolytic copper inventory decreased compared with last week, while the social inventory increased; LME's electrolytic copper inventory decreased, and COMEX's inventory increased [3] Downstream Market - High copper prices affected new orders, with the capacity utilization rate of China's refined copper (recycled copper rod) industry increasing; the raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper enterprises decreased (increased), and that of recycled copper rod enterprises remained flat (decreased) [3] - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper wire and cable industry decreased, and the order volume of copper foil packaging increased (slightly decreased) [3] - The capacity utilization rate of China's brass rod industry increased [3] - The easing of mutual tariffs between China and the US and other factors may lead to a month - on - month decline in the capacity utilization rate, production, import, and export of domestic copper processing enterprises [3]