空头小幅减仓，煤焦窄幅震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Coke: Oscillation [1] - Coking coal: Oscillation with a downward bias [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The economic data in April shows that the number of cities with rising real - estate prices has decreased, and the time for housing prices to bottom out has been postponed again. Industrial added - value has declined compared to March, and the social financing structure is mainly supported by bills and government bonds, with the financing demand of the real economy decreasing. However, the government's leverage increase continues, and subsequent fiscal policies may bring surprises [4]. - For coking coal, supply is the biggest negative factor. Domestic coking coal mine production has slightly declined but remains at a high level for the year, and mine coking coal inventories are accelerating. For coke, cost and downstream demand are decisive factors. After the continuous over - expected increase in hot metal production, there was a slight decline this week, and the first round of spot price cuts for coke has been implemented. Without obvious signs of crude steel production cuts and fiscal policy efforts, coal and coke are likely to maintain a weak oscillation pattern [5]. - Fundamentally, the short - term supply and demand of coal and coke have no obvious changes and remain weak. As the basis and monthly spread strengthen, the resistance to further decline of the 09 contract will increase. The potential downward space for coking coal is about 100, and for coke is about 140, so chasing short positions is not cost - effective. It is recommended to hold a small long position in the J09 contract and add positions after confirming the bottom [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal 3.1.1 Related Information - Spot prices have been lowered, and futures prices have continued to decline. The price of Mongolian 5 main coking coal is reported at 970 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the active contract is reported at 842 yuan/ton (+3.5). The basis is 148 yuan/ton (-3.5), and the 9 - 1 monthly spread is - 14.5 yuan/ton (-16.5) [1]. 3.1.2 Supply and Demand - Mine production has slightly declined, and coking enterprise production has remained flat. The production rate of 523 mines is reported at 89.26% (-0.66), the production rate of 110 coal washing plants is reported at 62.08% (-0.34), and the production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 75.23% (+0.18) [2]. 3.1.3 Inventory - Upstream inventories have increased, and downstream inventories have decreased. The coking coal inventory of 523 mines is reported at 4.1045 million tons (+200,200 tons), the coking coal inventory of coal washing plants is 2.0326 million tons (+59,800 tons), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 7.9121 million tons (+40,000 tons), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 7.5256 million tons (-226,100 tons), and the port inventory is 3.0609 million tons (+82,800 tons) [2]. 3.2 Coke 3.2.1 Related Information - The first round of spot price cuts has been implemented, and futures prices have oscillated downward. The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is reported at 1390 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the active contract is reported at 1417.5 yuan/ton (+10). The basis is 78.37 yuan/ton (-10), and the 9 - 1 monthly spread is - 27 yuan/ton (+3) [3]. 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - Supply has remained flat, and demand may have reached its peak. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 75.23% (+0.18). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 91.76% (-0.33), and the daily average hot metal output is 2.4477 million tons (-87,000 tons) [3]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Upstream inventories have remained flat, and downstream inventories have decreased. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 65,460 tons (+370 tons), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 663,800 tons (-7,230 tons), and the port inventory is 225,110 tons (-3,970 tons) [3]. 3.3 Strategy Recommendations - At present, the economic data in April shows that the real - estate market is still in the process of bottom - seeking, and the real economy's financing demand is weak. However, government leverage increase continues, and fiscal policies may bring positive effects. In the case of super - expected positive news from the Sino - US tariff negotiation, the black sector still shows a weak trend. Supply - side production cuts and fiscal policies to boost domestic demand are what the market is most looking forward to [4]. - In the short term, it is recommended to hold a small long position in the J09 contract and add positions after confirming the bottom. The potential downward space for coking coal is about 100, and for coke is about 140, so chasing short positions is not cost - effective [5].