Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Macro disturbances have weakened and market sentiment has improved, but the overall supply - demand situation of coking coal and coke remains weak. With the continuous increase in coking coal supply and the potential peak - to - decline trend of hot metal production, the prices are currently treated as bearish on rebounds [4] Group 3: Summary According to Related Contents Supply - side situation - Recently, coking coal and coke futures prices have continuously hit new lows, and the spot market saw the first round of price cuts last week, indicating a weak fundamental situation. Upstream coking coal inventories such as those in coal mines and coal washing plants are still high, with continuous inventory accumulation in recent weeks. This week, due to the maintenance of major mines in Changzhi, Shanxi and Anhui, production decreased, and safety requirements tightened in Liulin and other places, leading to obvious production cuts in major production areas in Shanxi. After the maintenance of major mines ends, raw coal production is expected to recover. In addition, Mongolian coal suspended customs clearance during the May Day holiday, and after resumption, the customs clearance volume rebounded to a relatively high level, and port inventories also increased again. Overall, coking coal supply remains abundant [3] Demand - side situation - The overall demand is currently at a high level, but there are expectations of production cuts in June. Currently, steel mills' profitability is acceptable, and their production enthusiasm is high, with the daily average hot metal output fluctuating around 2.44 million tons. However, even with high hot metal output, coking coal and coke prices have not escaped the downward trend, indicating a prominent problem of oversupply [4] Later - stage focus - Pay attention to changes in the blast furnace start - up rate of steel mills and the customs clearance situation of imported coal [4]
煤焦:供应充足,盘面保持弱势运行
Hua Bao Qi Huo·2025-05-22 02:36