中泰期货晨会纪要-20250522

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, the market shows a pattern where large - cap indices are weak and small - cap indices are strong. The short - term market may rest, and investors are advised to stay on the sidelines, consider partial profit - taking or defensive operations [9]. - In the bond market, there is a game between long and short factors, and the market is waiting for a clear direction. Investors are advised to focus on the breakout direction [11]. - For various commodities, different trends and investment strategies are presented, such as short - term weakness in some agricultural products and energy products, and potential opportunities in some industrial metals [12][15][26]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro News - China and ASEAN have completed the negotiation of the China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0, including 9 new chapters [6]. - The US attempts to globally ban Chinese advanced computing chips, and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has responded [6]. - Seven banks in China have lowered deposit interest rates, with a focus on medium - and long - term deposits [6]. - Shanghai has issued a special action plan to boost consumption, including measures for consumer goods replacement, housing consumption, and bond product supply [6]. - NVIDIA's CEO predicts that the Chinese AI market will reach $50 billion in 2026, and the US export control on AI chips to China has failed [7]. - A new tax bill may extend Trump's tax - cut policy and cut government spending, which may lead to an increase in federal debt [7]. - Two Fed officials suggest patience in policy adjustment, waiting for more data [7]. - The US Treasury auctioned $16 billion of 20 - year Treasury bonds, with a higher yield and a lower bid - to - cover ratio [8]. - The US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets were all under pressure due to concerns about the tax bill [8]. Stock Index Futures - In April, domestic demand was weak, industrial production was stronger than expected, and major indicators declined. The market style shifted back to weak large - cap and strong small - cap indices. The short - term market may rest, and investors are advised to stay on the sidelines and consider defensive operations [9]. Treasury Bond Futures - During the tax period, the capital market was loose, and bond prices fluctuated narrowly. The macro data in April showed mixed performance, and there is a game between long and short factors in the bond market. Investors are advised to focus on the breakout direction [10][11]. Container Shipping to Europe - In the first half of June, there is more capacity supply, and the price increase may not be fully realized. The price increase is more likely to be implemented in the second half of June. The supply in June - July is increasing, but there is uncertainty in the long - term. The situation of the US shipping market will also affect the European shipping market [12]. Cotton - The international cotton market is affected by factors such as crude oil prices and planting progress. The domestic cotton market is relatively strong due to increased downstream demand. However, there are still pressures such as high inventory and uncertain trade relations. The short - term price may rebound but is still under pressure [13][14][15]. Sugar - The international sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus in the next season, which will suppress prices. The domestic sugar market has sufficient short - term supply but low inventory, and the price may fluctuate within a certain range. Attention should be paid to import supply [15][16][17]. Oils and Fats, and Oilseeds - Palm oil is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and its short - term trend is weak. Attention should be paid to US biodiesel policy changes. Domestic soybean meal may be under pressure as soybean arrivals increase, but short - term support comes from low inventory [18][19]. Eggs - Egg prices have been falling before the Dragon Boat Festival, and the supply pressure is large in the medium - term. Consumption may enter a off - season after the festival. It is recommended to short on price rebounds [20][21]. Apples - The market is in a state of shock due to inconsistent views on apple fruiting. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, apple sales and prices are expected to be stable. It is recommended to use a light - position positive spread strategy [21]. Red Dates - The market trading is light, and the futures price is in a weak shock. The Xinjiang production area is in good condition, but the demand may decline after the festival. It is recommended to short on price increases [22]. Hogs - The supply pressure of live hogs is increasing, and demand may decline with the hot weather. The short - term spot price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [22][23]. Crude Oil - International crude oil prices are affected by inventory and geopolitical factors. The long - term trend is downward, and short - term fluctuations are strong but with limited upward space [23][24]. Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices follow crude oil prices. The current pressure area is around $65 - 68 per barrel, and the futures price is expected to decline [24][25]. Plastics - The short - term decline momentum of plastics weakens, and downstream export orders increase. It is expected to have a small - scale rebound, and a long position in the 9 - 1 spread can be considered [24]. Methanol - Methanol may have a short - term rebound due to less - than - expected port inventory accumulation, but the supply pressure is large, and it is recommended to short after the rebound [24]. Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda in Shandong is strong, while the futures price is pessimistic. Before the spot price falls, the futures price decline space is limited [24]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash production is in maintenance, and the short - term supply pressure eases, but the long - term supply is still abundant. Glass demand has not improved significantly, and the price may fluctuate or decline slightly [25]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices are affected by crude oil prices. The current pressure area of crude oil is $65 - 68 per barrel, and asphalt futures prices are expected to decline [25]. Polyester Industry Chain - Polyester products follow crude oil prices. With the resumption of production of maintenance devices, more cost - side benefits are needed for price increases. It is recommended to short on price rebounds [25]. Pulp - The short - term supply and demand of pulp have no major contradictions, and the market is in a rigid demand and high - inventory pattern. Attention should be paid to raw material and finished - product inventory rhythms [25][26]. Logs - The spot market of logs is stable, and the supply and demand are balanced. Attention should be paid to capital and macro - sentiment impacts. Short - term spot wheeling can sell covered calls, and long - term can buy out - of - the - money calls [26]. Urea - The urea spot market is weak and stable, and the futures market is affected by export rumors. It is recommended to maintain a strong - shock thinking [26]. Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum demand is strong in the off - season, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips. Alumina is affected by Guinea's policy, and the short - term price is strong, but the supply may return to surplus. It is recommended to be cautious when going long [26]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are in a shock pattern. The short - term price decline space is limited, and attention should be paid to supply - demand changes [26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon has an over - supply problem, and a bearish view is maintained before effective supply reduction. Polysilicon demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline. It is recommended to short on price rebounds [27][28]. Steel and Iron Ore - The steel market has weak demand and strong supply. The short - term trend is expected to be in shock, and the long - term trend is weak [29][30][32]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke prices are in a downward channel. The short - term trend is affected by policies, and the fundamentals have not changed substantially. It is not recommended to go long [32]. Ferroalloys - The upper - limit hedging pressure of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is large, and the short - term trend is downward. It is recommended to short on price increases [33].