宁证期货今日早评-20250522

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Short - term, crude oil has little pressure; long - term, focus on the progress of US - Iran and Russia - Ukraine negotiations and OPEC+ production increase. Short - term trading is recommended [1] - Gold is bullish in the short - term and may oscillate at high levels in the medium - term. Pay attention to the upcoming US Treasury bond redemption issues [1] - In the medium - and long - term, as new PTA production capacity is released, the pressure of over - capacity becomes apparent, and the upward price space may be limited [3] - Rubber prices are difficult to fall significantly and tend to oscillate. Short - term trading is recommended [4] - The bond market has certain support, and a medium - term slightly bullish and oscillating view is appropriate [5] - Silver is bearish due to the US economic downturn, but it follows the fluctuation of gold. A medium - term wide - range and slightly bullish oscillating view is appropriate [5] - The steel market is intertwined with long and short factors, and steel prices may continue to oscillate weakly and narrowly [6] - Iron ore prices maintain an oscillating trend under the situation of strong reality and weak expectation. Pay attention to the change of hot metal [8] - The coking coal market is expected to continue the weak trend in the short - term [8] - The pig price is expected to continue the weak trend, with limited downward space. It is recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities [9] - Palm oil prices oscillate in the short - term. High - selling and low - buying operations are maintained [10] - Methanol 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long - position on pullbacks [11] - Soda ash 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long - position on pullbacks [13] - Caustic soda 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term short - position on rebounds [13] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Crude Oil - EIA data shows that crude oil and refined oil inventories have increased. The fifth round of Iran - US negotiations will be held on May 23. Uranium enrichment in Iran will continue regardless of the agreement [1] Gold - The US has experienced a "triple kill" in stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. The auction of 20 - year US Treasury bonds was weaker than expected, and the dollar index has fallen, causing gold to rise [1] PTA - PX CFR is at $826/ton, PX - N is $257/ton. The average polyester sales rate is 29.6%. There is an expectation of restarting previous PTA maintenance devices, and the supply is slightly increasing [3] Rubber - Thai raw material prices are given. As of May 18, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory has decreased. Rubber raw materials are strong while finished products are weak [4] Treasury Bonds - Eight departments have jointly issued measures to support small and micro - enterprise financing, and major banks have lowered deposit interest rates, which support the bond market [5] Silver - Target's Q1 sales declined, and it expects low - single - digit sales decline in fiscal year 2025. The US economic downturn and the Treasury bond issue increase market pessimism [5] Rebar - On May 21, domestic steel market oscillated. The average price of 20mm third - grade seismic rebar decreased by 2 yuan/ton. The macro - environment is moderately positive, but high temperature and heavy rain affect steel sales [6] Iron Ore - From May 12 - 18, the total inventory of seven major ports in Australia and Brazil increased by 696,000 tons. The demand for iron ore has declined from the high level, while the supply remains high [8] Coking Coal - The opening rate of 110 coal washing plants decreased by 0.34%. Coal mine inventories have increased, and downstream steel mills have initiated the first round of coke price cuts [8] Pig - As of May 21, the national average ex - factory price of ternary pigs decreased by 0.02 yuan/kg. The market transaction was average, and the terminal's ability to accept high prices was limited [9] Palm Oil - From May 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 3.72%. Indonesia plans to raise the export tax, and the domestic spot basis is stable [10] Methanol - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is stable. The opening rate decreased by 3.7%. Port inventory increased by 0.65 tons, and enterprise orders to be delivered decreased by 3.84 tons [11] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash is stable. The opening rate is 80.06%. Factory inventory increased by 0.63%. The opening rate of float glass decreased by 0.22%, and its inventory increased by 0.77% [11][13] Caustic Soda - The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is stable. The opening rate decreased by 1.3%. Enterprise inventory increased by 7.08%. The opening rate of downstream industries decreased [13]