Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term disruptions due to industry cycles but is focusing on high-quality expansion and internal improvements. The first quarter revenue met expectations, with hotel operating revenue around 22.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, and total revenue of approximately 5.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2.2% [1][11] - The company aims for a revenue growth of 1-5% in Q2, with domestic segments expected to grow by 3-7% and franchise revenue by 18-22%. The management anticipates a narrowing decline in RevPAR in Q2, with a goal of at least maintaining or growing throughout the year [4][18] Summary by Sections Domestic Hotels - In Q1, domestic revenue was 4.481 billion RMB, up 5.5% year-on-year. Direct-operated hotels saw a decline of 9.4%, while franchise revenue increased by 21.1%. The overall RevPAR decreased by 3.9%, with same-store RevPAR down by 8.3% [2][16] - The company opened 694 new hotels and closed 155, with a total of 11,564 hotels by the end of Q1. The company plans to open approximately 2,300 new hotels throughout the year [2][16] Overseas Hotels - Q1 overseas revenue was 918 million RMB, down 11.3%. The decline was primarily due to the transition of 10 direct-operated hotels to a light-asset franchise model and the closure of one direct-operated hotel. The adjusted EBITDA for Q1 was -77 million RMB, indicating an increase in losses due to restructuring [3][17] Financial Forecasts - The company maintains adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 4.66 billion, 5.37 billion, and 6.13 billion RMB, respectively, with a three-year CAGR of 18%. The dynamic PE ratios are projected to be 17, 15, and 13 times for the respective years [5][19] - The company has a shareholder return plan of 2 billion USD over three years, which adds marginal appeal to the investment [5][19]
华住集团-S（01179）：短期受行业周期扰动，龙头兼顾高质量扩张与内功修炼