中银晨会聚焦-20250522

Group 1: Stock Recommendations - The report highlights a selection of stocks for May, including SF Holding (002352.SZ), Jitu Express (1519.HK), and Royal Technology (603181.SH) among others [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Insights - In April, the public fiscal revenue reached CNY 20,427 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.9%, which is an acceleration of 1.6 percentage points compared to March [7] - The land revenue in April also saw a year-on-year increase, supporting the improvement of local government fund income [8] - The consumer confidence index and dining data showed signs of recovery in Q1 2025, with retail sales in the dining sector growing by 5.6% year-on-year [18] Group 3: Real Estate Market Analysis - In April, new home prices in 70 major cities decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices fell by 0.4%, indicating a continued downward trend in the housing market [10][11] - The number of cities experiencing a decline in new home prices increased to 45 in April, with an average decline of 0.30% [11] - First-tier cities saw a shift in second-hand home prices from an increase to a decrease, with Beijing and Shenzhen both reporting declines [12] Group 4: Alcohol Industry Overview - The white liquor industry is currently in a bottom adjustment phase, with major companies maintaining stable operations while smaller firms face challenges [16] - In Q1 2025, the revenue growth for listed liquor companies was 1.6%, with net profit growth at 2.3%, showing a recovery compared to Q4 2024 [18] - The sales gross margin for the white liquor sector was 81.5% in Q1 2025, slightly down from 81.8% in 2024, indicating pressure on profit margins [19]