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新世纪期货交易提示(2025-5-22)-20250522
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo·2025-05-22 02:51

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Short - term long - allocation, medium - to - long - term short - allocation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating weakly [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda ash: Oscillating [2] - CSI 50: Rebounding [2] - CSI 300: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Upward [4] - CSI 1000: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Declining [4] - Gold: High - level oscillating [4] - Silver: Strong - side oscillating [4] - Pulp: Oscillating [6] - Logs: Oscillating [6] - Soybean oil: Oscillating [6] - Palm oil: Oscillating [6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating [6] - Soybean meal: Rebounding [6] - Rapeseed meal: Rebounding [6] - Soybean No. 2: Rebounding [6] - Soybean No. 1: Rebounding [6] - Live pigs: Oscillating [8] - Rubber: Oscillating [8] - PX: On - hold [8] - PTA: On - hold [9] - MEG: On - hold [9] - PR: On - hold [9] - PF: On - hold [9] Core Viewpoints - For the black industry, the previous policy - and sentiment - driven upward momentum is weakening, and the market is gradually returning to fundamentals. Each variety has different supply - demand situations and price trends [2] - In the financial market, with the phased results of Sino - US tariffs and the stabilization of the external market, the market risk - aversion sentiment has eased, and long positions in stock index futures can be held. Treasury bonds are in a narrow - range oscillation, and light long positions can be held [4] - In the precious metals market, the pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and various factors such as currency, finance, and geopolitics affect its price, which is expected to oscillate strongly [4] - In the light industry and agricultural products markets, various products are affected by factors such as supply - demand, seasonality, and policies, and most are expected to oscillate [6][8] - In the polyester market, due to factors such as oil prices, raw material prices, and supply - demand, most products are in a state of waiting and watching [9] Summaries by Categories Black Industry - Iron ore: The previous upward momentum is weakening, and it returns to fundamentals. In the short - term, it is supported by high steel mill profitability and new restocking demand, but port inventory is high. In the medium - to - long - term, domestic demand is weak, so a bearish view is taken [2] - Coking coal and coke: The supply - demand of coking coal is loose, and the profit of coking enterprises has improved. Coke supply is increasing, and the pattern of oversupply remains unchanged, following the trend of finished products [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: The previous upward momentum is weakening, demand is falling back, and inventory may increase. Steel prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [2] - Glass: Some production lines have resumed production, inventory has increased significantly, and demand is difficult to recover significantly in the long - term. It is in the transition from peak to off - season, and the focus is on downstream demand recovery [2] Financial Market - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day's stock index performance varied, and funds flowed in and out of different sectors. With the phased results of Sino - US tariffs, long positions in stock index futures can be held [2][4] - Treasury bonds: Market interest rates are consolidating, and Treasury bonds are in a narrow - range oscillation. Long positions can be held lightly [4] - Precious metals: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and various factors affect its price. It is expected to oscillate strongly, and silver is also expected to oscillate strongly [4] Light Industry and Agricultural Products - Pulp: The cost price has decreased, the papermaking industry's profitability is low, and demand is in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate [6] - Logs: Downstream demand is in the off - season, supply and demand are both weak, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [6] - Oils and fats: Supply is abundant, it is the traditional consumption off - season, but pre - holiday stocking has improved spot consumption. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to weather and production - sales [6] - Meal products: The inventory of new US soybeans may be tighter, and domestic soybean supply is turning loose. Meal products are expected to rebound in the short - term, and attention should be paid to weather and logistics [6] - Live pigs: Supply is relatively tight, demand is in the off - season, and cost provides support. Prices are expected to oscillate [8] - Rubber: Supply is relatively stable, demand is recovering, inventory accumulation is slowing down, and prices are expected to oscillate strongly [8] Polyester Market - PX: Oil prices are weakly consolidating, PX load is oscillating downwards, and it is expected to fluctuate with oil prices [8] - PTA: The possible acceleration of Russia - Ukraine peace talks may suppress oil price rebounds, and it is in a state of supply - demand destocking, mainly affected by raw material prices [9] - MEG: The supply - demand is not bad, but the macro - sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the disk fluctuates widely [9] - PR: Oil price callback weakens cost support, and the market may adjust weakly and steadily [9] - PF: Downstream orders are insufficient, and cost support is unstable. The market is expected to be weakly sorted [9]