Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The short - term nickel futures market shows a weak and volatile trend. The fundamental logic of the market currently dominates, and the impact of macro - sentiment has diminished. There is an expectation of increased supply in nickel ore, and the support at the bottom is weakening. However, the nickel - iron price has stopped falling and may provide some support. The new - energy sector may experience a situation of weak supply and demand in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent tariff policies at the macro level [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the China - US trade tariff agreement, the Philippine government's plan to ban nickel ore exports in June 2025, the implementation of the new Indonesian resource tax on April 26, and the increase in the expectation of interest - rate cuts due to the US CPI data falling short of expectations. Negative factors include the increase in ore supply at the end of the Philippine rainy season, the weakening support of the MHP - nickel sulfate link, the continued negative feedback in the stainless - steel industry, and the high inventory and lack of demand in the stainless - steel market [4]. Group 3: Specific Summaries 1. Nickel Price and Management Strategies - The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 119,000 - 129,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 13.71% and a historical percentile of 0.4% [2]. - For inventory management, when there is a risk of product price decline and inventory impairment, it is recommended to short Shanghai nickel futures according to inventory levels (60% hedging ratio) and sell call options (50% hedging ratio) to lock in profits and hedge against spot price declines [2]. - For procurement management, when there are future production procurement needs and concerns about rising raw - material prices, it is recommended to buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio based on the procurement plan [2]. 2. Nickel and Stainless - Steel Disk Data - Nickel Disk: The latest price of the Shanghai nickel main - continuous contract is 123,280 yuan/ton, with a 0% change. The prices of other contracts such as Shanghai nickel continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three have increased by 0.33%. The LME nickel 3M price is 15,530 US dollars/ton, up 0.39%. The trading volume and open interest remained unchanged, while the warehouse receipt volume decreased by 0.55%. The basis of the main contract remained unchanged [5]. - Stainless - Steel Disk: The latest price of the stainless - steel main - continuous contract is 12,870 yuan/ton, with a 0% change. The prices of other contracts such as stainless - steel continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three increased by 0.23% - 0.31%. The trading volume and open interest remained unchanged, while the warehouse receipt volume decreased by 0.50%. The basis of the main contract increased by 15.28% [6]. 3. Nickel Industry Inventory - The domestic social inventory of nickel is 44,151 tons, an increase of 63 tons. The LME nickel inventory is 201,786 tons, a decrease of 312 tons. The stainless - steel social inventory is 980.7 tons, a decrease of 8.4 tons. The nickel - pig - iron inventory is 29,554.5 tons, an increase of 1,158 tons [7].
镍、不锈钢:基本面无明显上行驱动,底部支撑仍存
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-05-22 02:50