Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term disruptions due to industry cycles but is focusing on high-quality expansion and internal improvements. The first quarter revenue met expectations, with hotel operating revenue around 22.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, and total revenue of approximately 5.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2.2% [1][11] - The company aims to maintain a balance between expansion and internal strengthening, with a focus on high-quality growth despite uncertainties in the environment [5][19] Summary by Sections Domestic Hotels - In Q1, domestic revenue was 4.481 billion RMB, up 5.5% year-on-year, with direct-operated hotels down 9.4% and franchise hotels up 21.1%. The overall RevPAR decreased by 3.9%, with same-store RevPAR down 8.3% [2][16] - The company opened 694 new hotels and closed 155, with a total of 11,564 hotels by the end of Q1. The target for new openings in 2025 is approximately 2,300 hotels [2][16] Overseas Hotels - Q1 overseas revenue was 918 million RMB, down 11.3%, with direct-operated revenue down 11.2%. The company is transitioning 10 direct-operated hotels to a light-asset franchise model, which has impacted short-term performance [3][17] - The adjusted EBITDA for overseas operations was -77 million RMB, indicating increased losses primarily due to the transition to a light-asset model and restructuring efforts [3][17] Future Outlook - The company expects Q2 revenue growth of 1-5%, with domestic growth of 3-7% and franchise revenue growth of 18-22%. The management anticipates a narrowing decline in RevPAR in Q2, aiming for at least flat or growth for the year [4][18] - The company continues to focus on brand upgrades, member direct sales, and light-asset strategies, with a significant portion of its hotels in lower-tier cities [4][18] Financial Projections - The adjusted net profit estimates for 2025-2027 are 4.66 billion, 5.37 billion, and 6.13 billion RMB, respectively, with a CAGR of 18%. The dynamic PE ratios are projected to be 17, 15, and 13 times for the respective years [5][19][6]
华住集团-S：短期受行业周期扰动，龙头兼顾高质量扩张与内功修炼-20250522