需求跟进疲弱，PVC盘面底部震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Neutral [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - PVC faces high inventory and supply pressure, with weak domestic demand, and its upward space is restricted. Continued attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand recovery [3][4]. - The overall supply - demand drive of caustic soda is expected to be weak, and there is insufficient upward momentum for prices. Attention should be paid to upstream device maintenance and downstream demand procurement rhythm [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,969 yuan/ton (+20), the East China basis was - 149 yuan/ton (-20), and the South China basis was - 79 yuan/ton (-10) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method was quoted at 4,820 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide method was quoted at 4,890 yuan/ton (+10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 605 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,980 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 206 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide method production was - 658 yuan/ton (+47), the gross profit of PVC ethylene method production was - 526 yuan/ton (+126), and the PVC export profit was 1.9 US dollars/ton (+1.6) [1]. - PVC inventory and start - up: The PVC in - factory inventory was 40.6 tons (-2.0), the PVC social inventory was 39.7 tons (-1.3), the PVC calcium carbide method start - up rate was 75.52% (-4.47%), the PVC ethylene method start - up rate was 70.06% (-2.20%), and the PVC start - up rate was 74.01% (-3.84%) [1]. - Downstream order status: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 63.2 tons (+11.1) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,527 yuan/ton (-18), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 98 yuan/ton (+18) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 840 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,400 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,634 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 730.8 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 198.78 yuan/ton (+0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,471.75 yuan/ton (+131.31) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and start - up: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 41.59 tons (+2.75), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.92 tons (-0.11), and the caustic soda start - up rate was 82.60% (-1.30%) [2]. - Caustic soda downstream start - up: The alumina start - up rate was 75.47% (-0.29%), the printing and dyeing start - up rate in East China was 63.23% (+2.55%), and the viscose staple fiber start - up rate was 80.65% (-0.35%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: There are many new maintenance enterprises, and the previously maintained devices continue to shut down. The PVC start - up rate has decreased month - on - month, and the maintenance increase has led to a month - on - month decline in the PVC factory inventory, but the overall supply remains high [3]. - Demand side: The start - up of PVC downstream product enterprises has rebounded but is still at a low level in the same period. The start - up of PVC pipes, profiles, and films is weakly stable. The downstream market mainly purchases on a rigid - demand basis at low prices, and the weakness on the demand side is difficult to reverse [3]. - Exports: Export orders are delivered stably, the PVC social inventory continues to decline, but the destocking rate is slow. The uncertainty of India's anti - dumping and BIS certification policies will still affect PVC exports [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply side: There are many new maintenance enterprises, and some previously maintained enterprises have not resumed production. The overall caustic soda start - up rate has decreased, but under the support of profits, most manufacturers maintain high - load operation, and the supply - side pressure is still relatively large [3]. - Demand side: The spot price of alumina, the main downstream product, has rebounded, the production profit of the alumina industry has significantly recovered, and the production reduction efforts may weaken under the support of profits. At the same time, the possibility of resuming production of previously maintained and production - reduced enterprises has increased, and the caustic soda consumption demand is expected to further increase in the later stage. The purchase price of 32% caustic soda by the main alumina factory in Shandong has been raised to 800 yuan/ton, which may further boost the caustic soda price. Non - aluminum downstream terminals still have certain resistance to high - priced goods, the procurement mentality is cautious, mainly for rigid - demand replenishment, and the start - up of terminals such as viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing is still at a low level in the same period, and the non - aluminum demand is still expected to be weak [3]. - Inventory: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory has slightly increased, and the inventory pressure is still relatively large [3].