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4月社零同比增长5.1%,基本符合预期
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-05-22 03:17

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a rating of "Increase" [5] Core Viewpoints - The retail sector shows a stable recovery in 2025, with some sub-sectors improving marginally, supported by policy stimuli, indicating positive future expectations [4][31] - In April 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 37,174 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, aligning with expectations [1][8] - The consumer price index (CPI) in April 2025 was -0.1% year-on-year, indicating deflationary pressures [2][11] Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - In April 2025, retail sales excluding automobiles reached 33,548 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [1][8] - The total retail sales from January to April 2025 amounted to 161,845 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.7% [1][8] Category Analysis - Essential categories showed positive growth in April 2025, with food and oil products increasing by 14.0% and 2.9% respectively [2][13] - Optional categories saw varied performance, with home appliances growing by 38.8% and cultural office supplies by 33.5% [2][13] Regional and Channel Insights - Urban retail sales in April 2025 were 32,376 billion yuan, up 5.2% year-on-year, while rural retail sales were 4,798 billion yuan, up 4.7% [3][25] - Online retail sales for physical goods reached 39,265 billion yuan from January to April 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.8% and accounting for 24.3% of total retail sales [3][25] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests potential investment opportunities in hospitality and tourism sectors, highlighting companies such as Huazhu Group and Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism [4][31] - The ongoing adjustment in retail strategies is expected to benefit companies like Yonghui Supermarket and Chongqing Department Store [4][31]