中辉有色观点-20250522

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Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to fluctuate and rise in the short - term and has high strategic allocation value in the long - term due to international order changes [1]. - Silver will have a range - bound oscillation, with its price influenced by gold and basic metals [1]. - Copper will have a narrow - range oscillation in the short - term, and long - term prospects are positive [1]. - Zinc is expected to decline, with supply increasing and demand weakening in the long run [1]. - Lead price will face pressure due to inventory accumulation in the off - season [1]. - Tin price will rebound and then fall as overseas supply recovers and domestic inventory accumulates [1]. - Aluminum price will face pressure in its rebound due to disturbances in the overseas bauxite end and weak downstream demand [1]. - Nickel price will face pressure as the supply of nickel ore increases and downstream inventory pressure remains [1]. - Industrial silicon has a bearish outlook due to oversupply concerns [1]. - Lithium carbonate should be sold on rebounds as supply remains sufficient and demand is expected to be weak [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Review: Gold rose as Trump's tax - cut bill faced obstacles and concerns about the US deficit increased [2]. - Underlying Logic: The US tax - cut bill faced opposition, China's central bank bought a large amount of gold, and the long - term trend of reducing dependence on the US dollar and loose fiscal and monetary policies supported gold. Silver is sensitive to financial and commodity attributes and is affected by gold [3]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the short - term, go long on the gold market and control positions for long - term investment. Silver will continue to have a range - bound oscillation in the range of [8130, 8350] [3]. Copper - Market Review: Shanghai copper rebounded under pressure and oscillated within a range [5]. - Industrial Logic: Overseas copper mine supply was tight, smelting maintenance increased, and the uncertainty of Trump's copper import tariff policy was draining copper inventories outside the US. High copper prices inhibited demand, but green copper demand in power, automotive, and home appliances offset the weakness in traditional copper demand [5]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the short - term, the balance of power between bulls and bears is stalemate, and copper will oscillate narrowly around the 78,000 - yuan mark. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and hold long - term positions cautiously. The short - term range for Shanghai copper is [77000, 78500], and for London copper is [9200, 9600] dollars per ton [6]. Zinc - Market Review: Zinc rebounded under pressure in the short - term and oscillated weakly [8]. - Industrial Logic: The supply of zinc ore will be loose in 2025. Domestic zinc ingot production increased in April and is expected to remain high in May. Downstream demand weakened, and the operating rate of zinc - related enterprises decreased [8]. - Strategy Recommendation: As the off - season for consumption begins, zinc's upside is limited. It is recommended to hold existing short positions and look for opportunities to go short on rebounds. The range for Shanghai zinc is [22000, 22600], and for London zinc is [2600, 2700] dollars per ton [9]. Aluminum - Market Review: Aluminum price rebounded slightly, and alumina showed a rebound trend [10]. - Industrial Logic: For electrolytic aluminum, the overseas macro - trade environment eased, inventory increased slightly, and downstream demand weakened. For alumina, overseas bauxite supply was high, domestic enterprises had maintenance and production cuts, and the supply surplus continued [11]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to wait and see for Shanghai aluminum, focusing on inventory changes. The main operating range is [19800 - 20500]. Alumina will operate stably [11]. Nickel - Market Review: Nickel price faced pressure in its rebound, and stainless steel also faced pressure [12]. - Industrial Logic: The overseas macro - environment eased. The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines increased, and the cost support weakened. Domestic refined nickel production increased, and inventory remained high. The inventory pressure of stainless steel decreased, but the overall supply - demand surplus pressure still existed [13]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to sell on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, focusing on downstream consumption. The main operating range for nickel is [120000 - 129000] [13]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract LC2507 opened high and moved high, with a reduction in positions and a rebound [14]. - Industrial Logic: The fundamental outlook is bearish. The price of raw materials continues to fall, supply remains sufficient, demand is about to enter the off - season, and inventory is increasing [15]. - Strategy Recommendation: Sell on rebounds in the range of [60800 - 62500] [15].