集运日报：欧盟加征小包裹关税，MSK涨价不及预期，盘面宽幅震荡，符合日报预期，已建议冲高止盈，等待回调机会-20250522

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The addition of tariffs to small packages by the EU and the less - than - expected price increase by MSK have led to wide - ranging fluctuations in the shipping market, which is in line with the daily report's expectations. The market shows intense long - short gaming, and attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and current freight rates [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Data - On May 12, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1265.30 points, down 2.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1446.36 points, down 0.6% [2]. - On May 16, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1014.55 points, up 6.53% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 750.91 points, down 0.78%; for the US - West route, it was 1813.08 points, up 23.18% [2]. - On May 16, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1479.39 points, down 134.22 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1154 USD/TEU, down 0.60%; the SCFI US - West route price was 3091 USD/FEU, up 31.70% [2]. - On May 16, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1104.88 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1430.35 points, down 1.0%; for the US - West route, it was 876.92 points, up 2.2% [2]. - On May 21, the main contract 2508 closed at 2121.1, down 7.18%, with a trading volume of 100,500 lots and an open interest of 53,000 lots, an increase of 1266 lots from the previous day [3]. Economic Indicators - The eurozone's preliminary April manufacturing PMI was 48.7 (expected 47.5), the services PMI was 49.7 (expected 50.5), and the composite PMI was 50.1 (expected 50.3, previous 50.9). The April Sentix investor confidence index was - 19.5 (expected - 10, previous - 2.9) [2]. - In March, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The Caixin China manufacturing PMI in March was 51.2, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - The preliminary April US S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 50.7 (expected 49.1, March final 50.2), the services PMI was 51.4 (expected 52.8, March final 54.4), and the composite PMI was 51.2 (expected 52.2, March final 53.5) [3]. Strategies - Short - term strategy: Given the volatile external policies, it is difficult to operate in the short - term. If participating in each contract, it is recommended to focus on the medium - to - long - term [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of tariff relaxation, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a near - strong and far - weak freight rate, but the window period is short and the fluctuations are large. Currently, it is mainly in a positive arbitrage structure [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts reach high levels, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then try to go long on the freight rate rebound [4]. Other Information - Tariffs have become a means of trade negotiation, adding a major disturbing factor to the future of maritime shipping. Although the easing of the China - US trade war may lead to a rush of shipments in 90 days, which is beneficial for the digestion of US - route shipping capacity, price wars among alliances cannot be avoided [3]. - There are differences in the future freight rate trends and price announcements. The market has intense long - short gaming, with wide - ranging fluctuations and an obvious decline at the end of the session [3]. - The Israeli government has recalled some of its negotiators for the detained persons in Gaza, leaving only a small team in Doha, Qatar [5]. - The EU plans to impose a 2 - euro tax on small packages entering the EU, most of which are from China [5].