新能源及有色金属日报：市场成交一般，沪镍窄幅震荡-20250522

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel market, the recent trading of refined nickel is relatively sluggish, and the support of premium and discount has weakened. There may be a short - term correction, and the medium - and long - term strategy is to sell and hedge at high prices. - For the stainless steel market, due to the decline in the price of nickel - iron raw materials, the cost support of stainless steel continues to weaken. It may continue the weak shock in the short term to seek strong support below, and the medium - and long - term strategy is also to sell and hedge at high prices. [3][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - Market Analysis - On May 21, 2025, the main contract 2506 of Shanghai nickel opened at 123,450 yuan/ton and closed at 123,280 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.05% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 107,562 lots, and the open interest was 59,648 lots. - The main contract 2506 fluctuated narrowly throughout the day, and the daily line closed with a small negative line. The trading volume and open interest decreased slightly compared with the previous trading day. The red column area of the daily MACD did not expand significantly and was close to turning green, indicating a possible short - term downward trend. There were top and bottom divergence phenomena on the 60 - minute line. - In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream brands varied. The overall trading of refined nickel spot was average, and the premium and discount decreased slightly. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 23,014 (- 128.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 201,786 (- 312) tons. [1][2] - Strategy - The short - term operation is recommended to be postponed to avoid systematic risks. The medium - and long - term strategy is to sell and hedge at high prices. The estimated upper limit of the recent range is 126,000 - 128,000, and the lower limit is 122,000 - 123,000. The unilateral strategy is mainly range operation, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options. [3] Stainless Steel Variety - Market Analysis - On May 21, 2025, the main contract 2507 of stainless steel opened at 12,860 yuan/ton and closed at 12,870 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 115,812 lots, and the open interest was 126,182 lots. - The main contract of stainless steel fluctuated narrowly following the nickel market, and the daily line closed with a small positive line. The trading volume and open interest of the 07 contract decreased slightly compared with the previous trading day. The red column area of the daily MACD did not expand further, increasing the possibility of a short - term correction. - In the spot market, most merchants in the Foshan market quoted the same as the previous trading day, and individual merchants lowered the price by 50 yuan/ton. The market trading was average, and market confidence remained low. The nickel - iron market quotation was basically the same as the previous trading day, and it was expected to be weak in the short term. The stainless steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets were 13,175 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium and discount was 350 - 600 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 946.5 yuan/nickel point. [3][4][5] - Strategy - The short - term operation is recommended to be postponed to avoid systematic risks. The medium - and long - term strategy is to sell and hedge at high prices. The estimated upper limit of the recent range is 13,000 - 13,100, and the lower limit is 12,500 - 12,600. The unilateral strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options. [6]